Bitcoin Rainbow Chart Today – Live Bands & Price Ranges

Kumo’s Bitcoin rainbow chart

Every weekly close on a log scale, over the eight bands. Hover or tap anywhere to see the band for that week.

This week· BTC $76,699· long-term line $139,187· Snow

1. Deep freeze
2. Snow
3. Rain
4. Cloudy
5. Fair
6. Sunny
7. Hot
8. Heatwave

Weekly closes, log scale. Dashed line = Kumo’s long-term line (the fit). Bands continue 1 year ahead to show where they would sit if the fit held – that is not a forecast. Arrows mark the halvings. Chart engine: TradingView Lightweight Charts™

Today’s price range for each band

What Bitcoin would have to cost today (Nov 2, 2026) to sit in each band, and how much of its history it spent there.

Price range of each rainbow band today
Band	What it means	Price range today	Share of days
8. Heatwave	Historically very expensive – only reached in the biggest bubbles.	above $782,703	1.5%
7. Hot	Historically expensive – far above the long-term line.	$440,146 – $782,703	4.1%
6. Sunny	Clearly above the line – on the pricey side.	$277,714 – $440,146	10.9%
5. Fair	A little above the long-term line – getting warmer.	$175,225 – $277,714	16.1%
4. Cloudy	Right around the long-term line – neither cheap nor expensive.	$124,050 – $175,225	17.1%
3. Rain	A bit below the long-term line – on the cheap side.	$87,821 – $124,050	19.9%
2. Snowtoday	Historically cheap – clearly below the long-term line.	$62,172 – $87,821	25.8%
1. Deep freeze	Historically very cheap – the coldest prices compared with the long-term line.	below $62,172	4.7%

Hottest day vs the line10.8×Nov 29, 2013 at $1,132

Coldest day vs the line0.37×Aug 24, 2015 at $210

Today vs the line0.55×line today: $139,187

The band at each halving

A halving is the moment, about every four years, when the reward for creating new bitcoin is cut in half. Here is the weather on each halving day and one year later.

Halving · Nov 28, 2012Deep freezePrice that day: $12One year later: Heatwave at $1,013 (+8190%)
Halving · Jul 9, 2016SnowPrice that day: $648One year later: Cloudy at $2,502 (+286%)
Halving · May 11, 2020RainPrice that day: $8,572One year later: Sunny at $56,764 (+562%)
Halving · Apr 20, 2024CloudyPrice that day: $64,990One year later: Cloudy at $85,198 (+31%)

Careful: these bands use today’s fit, which already “knows” the prices that came after each halving. Someone standing on that day would have drawn a slightly different line. For the full story see Kumo Research on halving cycles.

How Kumo builds the rainbow

No secret sauce – here is the exact recipe, recalculated from the data every time the page updates.

Kumo’s long-term line (fitted on 5,556 daily closes, Aug 18, 2011 to Nov 2, 2026):

log10(price) = 5.5709 × log10(days since 3 Jan 2009) − 16.1024

a = 5.5709 is the slope. It means every time the number of days since Bitcoin began doubles, the line multiplies by about 48×.
b = −16.1024 is where the line starts. Together, a and b explain 95.0% of the ups and downs of log(price) (a measure called R²).
The line rises more slowly every year. At today’s fit it would rise about 36% over the next 365 days – that is the maths of the curve, not a forecast.
The bands sit at fixed distances from the line: 0.32×, 0.45×, 0.63×, 0.89×, 1.26×, 2.00×, 3.16×, 5.62×, 11.22× the line. Kumo chose them so that most of Bitcoin’s history (here 100.0% of days) falls inside the bands.
Days since Jan 3, 2009 (the first Bitcoin block). Prices: Bitstamp daily closes in US dollars.

The rainbow chart, explained simply

What the colours mean

1. Deep freeze: Historically very cheap – the coldest prices compared with the long-term line.
2. Snow: Historically cheap – clearly below the long-term line.
3. Rain: A bit below the long-term line – on the cheap side.
4. Cloudy: Right around the long-term line – neither cheap nor expensive.
5. Fair: A little above the long-term line – getting warmer.
6. Sunny: Clearly above the line – on the pricey side.
7. Hot: Historically expensive – far above the long-term line.
8. Heatwave: Historically very expensive – only reached in the biggest bubbles.

Why a curved line?

Bitcoin grew very fast when it was young and has grown more slowly as it got bigger. A line that fits “price against time” on two log scales captures that slowing growth with just two numbers. The bands then show how far the price wandered above or below it.

How people use it

Long-term holders use it as a mood check: cold bands have been the cheaper times in the past, hot bands the pricier ones. It is most useful for the very big picture – years, not days.

This is not a prediction

It is fitted to the past. The line is drawn through prices we already know. Nothing forces future prices to stay near it.
The line moves. Each new day of data refits the line, so band prices change a little over time – a past “cheap” price can look different later.
The bands are a choice. Their widths were picked by Kumo to cover history. Different choices give different colours.
Growth can slow down more. If Bitcoin matures faster than the curve assumes, the price could sit in the cold bands for a long time without being a bargain.
Few cycles. Bitcoin has had only a handful of big boom-and-bust cycles, which is very little history for any statistical rule.

How to read the rainbow chart in 4 steps

Kumo’s quick guide for complete beginners.

1Find today’s colourLook at the right end of the chart, where Kumo sits. Today it is Snow.
2Read the meaningCold colours (blue) = cheap compared with history. Hot colours (orange, red) = expensive compared with history.
3Look back in timeHover over old tops and bottoms to see which bands they reached. Notice how long Bitcoin often stays in one colour.
4Check other toolsNever rely on one chart. Compare with the 200-week moving average and Kumo’s price prediction.

Bitcoin rainbow chart: questions

What is the Bitcoin rainbow chart?

It is Bitcoin’s whole price history drawn on a log scale with coloured bands laid over it. The bands are built around one long-term line that fits the history, so you can see at a glance whether today’s price is cheap or expensive compared with Bitcoin’s own past. Kumo’s version uses eight weather bands, from Deep freeze (cold, cheap) to Heatwave (hot, expensive).

Which band is Bitcoin in today?

When this page was built Bitcoin was $76,699, which puts it in band 2 of 8, “Snow”: historically cheap – clearly below the long-term line. The box at the top uses the live price.

How is Kumo’s rainbow chart calculated?

Kumo fits a straight line through every daily closing price since Aug 18, 2011, after turning both the price and the number of days since Bitcoin’s first block (3 January 2009) into logarithms: log10(price) = 5.571 × log10(days) − 16.102. The eight bands sit at fixed distances above and below that line. The line is refitted with the newest prices every time the page updates.

Is the rainbow chart a price prediction?

No. It is a picture of the past with a smooth line through it. Bitcoin has no rule that makes it follow the line, and the line itself changes a little as new prices arrive. Use it to understand where today sits compared with history, not to guess a future price.

Who made the first Bitcoin rainbow chart?

The idea grew out of a “logarithmic regression” chart – a long-term growth line drawn through Bitcoin’s price on a log scale – posted on the Bitcointalk forum in August 2014 by a user called “Trolololo”. Colour bands around the line were added and shared on Reddit in the following years, and the best-known version today has nine bands. Kumo’s chart uses the same idea with its own line fitted to the full price history and eight weather bands.

Why does Kumo’s chart look different from other rainbow charts?

Kumo made its own version: its own fit on Bitstamp daily data, its own band widths and its own weather names. Other rainbow charts use different data, a different starting point, different formulas or hand-drawn bands, so the colours and price levels will not match exactly.

What does “log scale” mean?

On a normal chart every step up the side adds the same number of dollars. On a log (logarithmic) chart every step multiplies the price by the same amount – from $10 to $100 is the same height as from $10,000 to $100,000. That is the only fair way to show an asset that went from a few dollars to tens of thousands.

Which band was Bitcoin in at the halvings?

2012: Deep freeze, one year later Heatwave; 2016: Snow, one year later Cloudy; 2020: Rain, one year later Sunny; 2024: Cloudy, one year later Cloudy. All of these use today’s fit, which already knows what happened afterwards.

How often is the rainbow chart updated?

The fit, the bands and all the tables are recalculated from the full daily price history at most every 30 minutes, so the line is refitted every day as a new daily close comes in. The live box and the end of the chart move with the price every 30 seconds while the page is open.

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Alex designed the Kumocast model behind these signals, sets its rules, reviews its accuracy record and updates the methodology whenever the model changes. Signals are refreshed every 30 minutes with live market data.

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