kumocast

Gold Price Prediction Today (XAU/USD) – November 1, 2026

LIVE · next update ~
Alex Wu, Independent market analystModel by · auto-updated
Futures market closed · opens in 1 h 40 min – showing the 24/7 Hyperliquid (trade.xyz) price

Gold price: $3,886.50

+0.04% 24h

Rainy

bearish · confidence 74%

Gold analysis today

Stormy for Gold: most signals lean lower. Gold is trading at $3,886.50, up 0.04% over the last 24 hours, after moving between $3,882.10 and $3,893.00.

Our model's mood score is -64 out of 100 (bearish). The nearest ceiling (resistance) is $3,895.27 and the nearest floor (support) is $3,880.63. Our 24-hour forecast range is $3,853.77–$3,910.38, based on recent volatility.

A break above $3,895.27 would open the way towards $3,974.43. If $3,880.63 gives way, Gold could slide towards $3,876.67. Gold in brief – Gold reacts to real interest rates, the US dollar, central-bank buying and geopolitical risk; it often rises when markets are nervous.

Over the past week Gold has lost 2.85%, and over the past month it has lost 6.24%. With an average daily swing of 1.04%, the 0.23% gap to the ceiling and the 0.15% gap to the floor are both within reach today.

See all gold, silver & oil price predictions today →Related: Bitcoin price prediction

Gold chart: last 48 hours and next 24

Real XAU/USD price (solid line) and the 24-hour forecast range (shaded). The cone widens because uncertainty grows with time.

NowCeiling$3,895.27Floor$3,880.6300:0012:0000:0012:0000:0012:00UTC

Forecast ranges: 4 hours, 24 hours, 7 days

Each balloon stretches from the expected low to the expected high. Longer trips need bigger balloons.

Now $3,886.50$3,896.23$3,873.10Next 4 hours$3,910.38$3,853.77Next 24 hours$3,977.71$3,763.97Next 7 days
  • Next 4 hours: $3,873.10 – $3,896.23
  • Next 24 hours: $3,853.77 – $3,910.38
  • Next 7 days: $3,763.97 – $3,977.71

Buyers vs sellers

Buyers versus sellers over the last day, measured by the value traded in up-candles and down-candles.

Sellers 43%Buyers 57%

Buyers 57% · Sellers 43% (last 24h)

Order-book mountains

Resting buy and sell orders within 2% of the price, shown as two mountains. Flags mark the biggest walls.

$3,876.78$3,886.50$3,867.07Buy orders$3,896.22$3,886.50$3,905.93Sell orders

Sunny vs rainy: what happens next?

Two ways the next move could go, with the chance our model gives each.

Sunny scenario

If $3,886.50 breaks above $3,895.27 → $3,974.43

31%

Rainy scenario

If it breaks below $3,880.63 → $3,876.67

69%

Mood dials

Our indicator dashboard: trend, momentum and stretch at a glance.

  • RSI (14, daily)

    28

    Bullish

    oversold – bounces are common

  • MACD (4h)

    Above signal

    Bullish

    momentum is pointing up

  • Trend (EMA 20/50, 4h)

    Downtrend

    Bearish

    short trend is below the medium trend

  • Long trend (EMA 200, daily)

    Price below

    Bearish

    long-term trend is down

  • Stochastic (4h)

    38

    Bullish

    turning up

  • Trend strength (ADX)

    35

    Neutral

    a strong trend is in place

  • Bollinger position (daily)

    5%

    Neutral

    inside the normal band

  • What the dials say

    3 of 7 indicators lean bullish and 2 lean bearish. RSI (14, daily): oversold – bounces are common; MACD (4h): momentum is pointing up; Trend (EMA 20/50, 4h): short trend is below the medium trend.

Hour-by-hour weather

The last 12 hours of Gold, hour by hour.

  1. 09:00Cloudy+0.05%
  2. 10:00Cloudy+0.01%
  3. 11:00Cloudy−0.03%
  4. 12:00Cloudy+0.00%
  5. 13:00Cloudy+0.01%
  6. 14:00Cloudy+0.04%
  7. 15:00Cloudy−0.02%
  8. 16:00Cloudy+0.04%
  9. 17:00Cloudy+0.02%
  10. 18:00Light rain−0.11%
  11. 19:00Cloudy−0.04%
  12. 20:00Cloudy+0.02%

Today in one line: 0 of the last 12 hours were bright for Gold; the day is net positive so far.

The sun's path: trading sessions

Today's trading split into the Asian, London and New York sessions.

AsiaLondonNew York

  • Asia

    Done

    High $3,890.30 · Low $3,884.20

    +0.14%

  • London

    Done

    High $3,891.90 · Low $3,887.00

    −0.05%

  • New York

    Done

    High $3,893.00 · Low $3,882.10

    −0.08%

Gold 7-day forecast

The week ahead, one row per day, with the expected range and direction.

likely rangeprice now▲ / ▼ change of the range middle vs now

  1. MondayNov 2

    Rainy – likely between $3,841.01 and $3,922.04

    ▼ 0.13%
  2. TuesdayNov 3

    Rainy – likely between $3,819.33 and $3,933.77

    ▼ 0.27%
  3. WednesdayNov 4

    Light rain – likely between $3,801.60 and $3,941.57

    ▼ 0.40%
  4. ThursdayNov 5

    Light rain – likely between $3,785.92 and $3,947.33

    ▼ 0.53%
  5. FridayNov 6

    Light rain – likely between $3,771.56 and $3,951.79

    ▼ 0.67%
  6. SaturdayNov 7

    Light rain – likely between $3,758.14 and $3,955.31

    ▼ 0.80%
  7. SundayNov 8

    Light rain – likely between $3,745.45 and $3,958.13

    ▼ 0.93%

Gold price prediction 2026–2030

Long-term scenarios from pure statistics: Gold's yearly volatility is about 23% and its trend was −34.09% over the past year. The base case keeps only a small, capped part of that trend; the bear and bull cases show the 10% and 90% edges of the likely spread.

Year endBear caseBase caseBull case
2026$3,386.91$3,811.70−1.92%$4,289.76
2027$2,463.50$3,380.67−13.01%$4,639.32
2028$1,945.98$2,997.40−22.88%$4,616.93
2029$1,576.85$2,658.46−31.60%$4,481.97
2030$1,295.07$2,357.84−39.33%$4,292.76

Price today: $3,886.50 (black line). Nobody can know where Gold will trade in five years – these ranges show how far it could plausibly travel given its own history, not a promise. Not financial advice.

How accurate is our Gold forecast?

We replay the daily version of the Kumocast range model on the last 30 finished days, using only data that was available before each day. A good one-standard-deviation range should catch the next close about 68% of the time.

80%Next-day range hit rate24 of 30 days closed inside the range (target ≈68%)
77%7-day range hit rate23 of 30 weekly ranges held
±1.1%Average daily rangehow wide the next-day range was on average – narrower means a calmer market

Last 30 days

  1. 2026-10-02: inside range
  2. 2026-10-03: inside range
  3. 2026-10-04: inside range
  4. 2026-10-05: inside range
  5. 2026-10-06: inside range
  6. 2026-10-07: outside range
  7. 2026-10-08: inside range
  8. 2026-10-09: inside range
  9. 2026-10-10: inside range
  10. 2026-10-11: inside range
  11. 2026-10-12: inside range
  12. 2026-10-13: inside range
  13. 2026-10-14: inside range
  14. 2026-10-15: inside range
  15. 2026-10-16: inside range
  16. 2026-10-17: inside range
  17. 2026-10-18: inside range
  18. 2026-10-19: outside range
  19. 2026-10-20: inside range
  20. 2026-10-21: inside range
  21. 2026-10-22: outside range
  22. 2026-10-23: inside range
  23. 2026-10-24: inside range
  24. 2026-10-25: inside range
  25. 2026-10-26: inside range
  26. 2026-10-27: outside range
  27. 2026-10-28: inside range
  28. 2026-10-29: outside range
  29. 2026-10-30: outside range
  30. 2026-10-31: inside range

close inside the rangeclose outside

Verdict: over the last month the Gold ranges were well calibrated. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results. How we score ourselves

Why is Gold moving? News and events

The forecast is pure maths, but prices react to news. Here are the latest Gold headlines and the scheduled economic releases that could move it this week.

Latest headlines

Headlines via Google News. Kumocast does not write or endorse them.

Gold live update log

Every 30 minutes Kumo checks the sky again. Newest first.

z z

Market closed – next update when Futures market opens

TODAY6

  1. $3,886.50+0.04%Quiet half hour: Gold held near $3,886.50
  2. $3,884.80−0.03%Calm skies: Gold stayed close to $3,884.80
  3. $3,885.80+0.02%Dipped to a new 24h low of $3,882.10, closed at $3,885.80
  4. $3,884.90−0.06%Sellers pushed Gold down to $3,884.90 (−0.06%)
  5. $3,887.30−0.10%Gold eased lower to $3,887.30 (−0.10%)
  6. $3,891.00−0.02%Hit a new 24h high of $3,893.00, closed at $3,891.00
Show all 16 updates
  1. $3,891.60+0.02%Quiet half hour: Gold held near $3,891.60
  2. $3,890.80−0.01%Calm skies: Gold stayed close to $3,890.80
  3. $3,891.00+0.02%Gold drifted sideways around $3,891.00
  4. $3,890.30+0.02%Quiet half hour: Gold held near $3,890.30
  5. $3,889.70+0.01%Calm skies: Gold stayed close to $3,889.70
  6. $3,889.40−0.03%Gold drifted sideways around $3,889.40
  7. $3,890.700.00%Quiet half hour: Gold held near $3,890.70
  8. $3,890.70+0.04%Hit a new 24h high of $3,892.40, closed at $3,890.70
  9. $3,889.30+0.04%Gold drifted sideways around $3,889.30
  10. $3,887.60−0.04%Quiet half hour: Gold held near $3,887.60

Gold prediction FAQ

What is the Gold price prediction for today?

For today we expect Gold to trade mostly between $3,853.77 and $3,910.38. The outlook is rainy (bearish), with a 31% chance of the sunny scenario playing out first. This range is updated every 30 minutes.

What is the Gold prediction for tomorrow?

For Monday our model points to a range of $3,841.01 to $3,922.04, centred near $3,881.31 (−0.13% from now).

Is Gold going up or down?

Right now the signals are bearish: 3 indicators lean up and 2 lean down. Gold is down 2.85% over the past week.

What are the Gold support and resistance levels?

The nearest resistance (ceiling) is $3,895.27 and the nearest support (floor) is $3,880.63. Today's classic pivot point is $3,885.97, with R1 at $3,889.93 and S1 at $3,880.63.

What is the Gold forecast for this week?

Over the next 7 days we expect Gold to stay roughly between $3,763.97 and $3,977.71. Weekly ranges are wider because uncertainty grows with time.

Is Gold a buy or a sell today?

No signal here is a trade recommendation. The current read for XAU/USD is 3 bullish / 2 neutral / 2 bearish across our seven indicators.

How volatile is Gold right now?

Gold has a typical daily move of about 1.04% based on the last 60 days. In the last 24 hours it moved between $3,882.10 and $3,893.00.

How accurate is this Gold prediction?

Our ranges are statistical: about two out of three times, price is expected to stay inside the 24-hour range. Markets can and do break out of any range, especially around news.

How often is this Gold analysis updated?

The page rebuilds itself about every 30 minutes with fresh XAU/USD data. The "updated" badge at the top shows exactly when.

Where does the Gold price data come from?

Prices come from public exchange data (with automatic backup sources). See our methodology page for details.

What is the Gold price prediction for 2030?

Our statistical base case for the end of 2030 is about $2,357.84, with a wide 80% range from $1,295.07 (bear case) to $4,292.76 (bull case). It is built from Gold's own volatility and a heavily shrunk version of its past-year trend, so treat it as a scenario, not a target.

Where could Gold be at the end of 2027?

For the end of 2027 the model's base case is $3,380.67 (−13.01% from today), with a bear case near $2,463.50 and a bull case near $4,639.32. The range is refreshed every 30 minutes as new prices arrive.

Alex Wu, Independent market analyst

About the analyst

Alex Wu

Independent market analyst

Independent market analyst focused on crypto, DeFi, perps and FX. Driven by data. Alex designed the Kumocast weather model and reviews its methodology.

The numbers on this page are produced automatically every 30 minutes by the Kumocast engine – there are no hand-picked calls. Alex sets the rules, checks the accuracy tracker and updates the methodology when the model changes.

Follow @OnchainUalexwu@kumocast.io

How we make this forecast

Every 30 minutes Kumocast reads public price data and runs it through seven classic indicators, support and resistance detection and a volatility model. The weather word sums up the combined mood score, from −100 (rainy) to +100 (sunny). Ranges are statistical estimates, not promises. Read the full methodology

Data: Hyperliquid (trade.xyz)

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