kumocast

S&P 500 Prediction Today (SPX) – November 1, 2026

LIVE · next update ~
Alex Wu, Independent market analystModel by · auto-updated
Wall Street (NYSE) closed · opens in 17 h 10 min – showing the 24/7 Hyperliquid (trade.xyz) price

S&P 500 price: $7,596.10

+0.15% 24h

Light rain

slightly bearish · confidence 58%

S&P 500 analysis today

Grey skies for S&P 500 – the signals tilt mildly bearish. S&P 500 is trading at $7,596.10, up 0.15% over the last 24 hours, after moving between $7,583.00 and $7,604.50.

Our model's mood score is -35 out of 100 (slightly bearish). The nearest ceiling (resistance) is $7,610.33 and the nearest floor (support) is $7,579.00. Our 24-hour forecast range is $7,557.49–$7,628.65, based on recent volatility.

If buyers push through $7,610.33, the next stop is around $7,616.39. A drop below $7,579.00 would put $7,569.60 in focus. S&P 500 in brief – The S&P 500 tracks 500 large US companies; it reacts to earnings, Fed policy, bond yields and big-tech results.

Zooming out, S&P 500 is down 0.40% over seven days and down 1.59% over thirty days. With an average daily swing of 0.52%, the 0.19% gap to the ceiling and the 0.23% gap to the floor are both within reach today.

See all stock index predictions today →

S&P 500 chart: last 48 hours and next 24

Past 48 hours of S&P 500 on the left, the forecast cone for the next 24 hours on the right. Dashed lines mark the ceiling and the floor.

NowCeiling$7,610.33Floor$7,579.0000:0012:0000:0012:0000:0012:00UTC

Forecast ranges: 4 hours, 24 hours, 7 days

Each balloon stretches from the expected low to the expected high. Longer trips need bigger balloons.

Now $7,596.10$7,609.37$7,580.31Next 4 hours$7,628.65$7,557.49Next 24 hours$7,692.76$7,482.49Next 7 days
  • Next 4 hours: $7,580.31 – $7,609.37
  • Next 24 hours: $7,557.49 – $7,628.65
  • Next 7 days: $7,482.49 – $7,692.76

Buyers vs sellers

A simple tug of war: money flowing through green candles against money flowing through red ones.

Sellers 39%Buyers 61%

Buyers 61% · Sellers 39% (last 24h)

Order-book mountains

Resting buy and sell orders within 2% of the price, shown as two mountains. Flags mark the biggest walls.

$7,577.11$7,596.10Buy orders$7,596.10$7,615.09Sell orders

Sunny vs rainy: what happens next?

Two ways the next move could go, with the chance our model gives each.

Sunny scenario

If $7,596.10 breaks above $7,610.33 → $7,616.39

40%

Rainy scenario

If it breaks below $7,579.00 → $7,569.60

60%

Mood dials

What the technical indicators say right now for SPX.

  • RSI (14, daily)

    40

    Bearish

    sellers have the upper hand

  • MACD (4h)

    Above signal

    Bullish

    momentum is pointing up

  • Trend (EMA 20/50, 4h)

    Downtrend

    Bearish

    short trend is below the medium trend

  • Long trend (EMA 200, daily)

    Price above

    Bullish

    long-term trend is up

  • Stochastic (4h)

    89

    Bearish

    stretched to the upside

  • Trend strength (ADX)

    17

    Neutral

    no strong trend – range trading

  • Bollinger position (daily)

    15%

    Neutral

    inside the normal band

  • What the dials say

    2 of 7 indicators lean bullish and 3 lean bearish. RSI (14, daily): sellers have the upper hand; MACD (4h): momentum is pointing up; Trend (EMA 20/50, 4h): short trend is below the medium trend.

Hour-by-hour weather

The last 12 hours of S&P 500, hour by hour.

  1. 09:00Cloudy+0.02%
  2. 10:00Cloudy−0.01%
  3. 11:00Cloudy−0.02%
  4. 12:00Cloudy−0.00%
  5. 13:00Cloudy+0.02%
  6. 14:00Cloudy+0.02%
  7. 15:00Cloudy+0.01%
  8. 16:00Partly sunny+0.05%
  9. 17:00Cloudy−0.00%
  10. 18:00Light rain−0.05%
  11. 19:00Light rain−0.07%
  12. 20:00Cloudy+0.04%

Today in one line: 1 of the last 12 hours were bright for S&P 500; the day is net positive so far.

S&P 500 7-day forecast

Day-by-day ranges for the coming week. Bars get wider as uncertainty grows.

likely rangeprice now▲ / ▼ change of the range middle vs now

  1. MondayNov 2

    Light rain – likely between $7,553.65 and $7,633.19

    ▼ 0.04%
  2. TuesdayNov 3

    Light rain – likely between $7,534.52 and $7,646.96

    ▼ 0.07%
  3. WednesdayNov 4

    Light rain – likely between $7,519.23 and $7,656.89

    ▼ 0.11%
  4. ThursdayNov 5

    Light rain – likely between $7,505.93 and $7,664.84

    ▼ 0.15%
  5. FridayNov 6

    Light rain – likely between $7,493.91 and $7,671.51

    ▼ 0.18%
  6. SaturdayNov 7

    Cloudy – likely between $7,482.79 and $7,677.27

    ▼ 0.22%
  7. SundayNov 8

    Cloudy – likely between $7,472.37 and $7,682.35

    ▼ 0.26%

S&P 500 prediction 2026–2030

Long-term scenarios from pure statistics: S&P 500's yearly volatility is about 11% and its trend was +24.88% over the past year. The base case keeps only a small, capped part of that trend; the bear and bull cases show the 10% and 90% edges of the likely spread.

Year endBear caseBase caseBull case
2026$7,246.74$7,678.53+1.09%$8,136.04
2027$7,029.02$8,207.69+8.05%$9,584.00
2028$7,101.47$8,774.91+15.52%$10,842.69
2029$7,262.31$9,379.63+23.48%$12,114.24
2030$7,475.94$10,026.01+31.99%$13,445.92

Price today: $7,596.10 (black line). Nobody can know where S&P 500 will trade in five years – these ranges show how far it could plausibly travel given its own history, not a promise. Not financial advice.

How accurate is our S&P 500 forecast?

We replay the daily version of the Kumocast range model on the last 30 finished days, using only data that was available before each day. A good one-standard-deviation range should catch the next close about 68% of the time.

63%Next-day range hit rate19 of 30 days closed inside the range (target ≈68%)
73%7-day range hit rate22 of 30 weekly ranges held
±0.50%Average daily rangehow wide the next-day range was on average – narrower means a calmer market

Last 30 days

  1. 2026-10-02: outside range
  2. 2026-10-03: inside range
  3. 2026-10-04: inside range
  4. 2026-10-05: outside range
  5. 2026-10-06: outside range
  6. 2026-10-07: inside range
  7. 2026-10-08: inside range
  8. 2026-10-09: outside range
  9. 2026-10-10: inside range
  10. 2026-10-11: inside range
  11. 2026-10-12: inside range
  12. 2026-10-13: inside range
  13. 2026-10-14: outside range
  14. 2026-10-15: inside range
  15. 2026-10-16: outside range
  16. 2026-10-17: inside range
  17. 2026-10-18: outside range
  18. 2026-10-19: inside range
  19. 2026-10-20: inside range
  20. 2026-10-21: inside range
  21. 2026-10-22: outside range
  22. 2026-10-23: inside range
  23. 2026-10-24: inside range
  24. 2026-10-25: inside range
  25. 2026-10-26: outside range
  26. 2026-10-27: inside range
  27. 2026-10-28: inside range
  28. 2026-10-29: outside range
  29. 2026-10-30: outside range
  30. 2026-10-31: inside range

close inside the rangeclose outside

Verdict: over the last month the S&P 500 ranges were well calibrated. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results. How we score ourselves

Why is S&P 500 moving? News and events

The forecast is pure maths, but prices react to news. Here are the latest S&P 500 headlines and the scheduled economic releases that could move it this week.

Latest headlines

Headlines via Google News. Kumocast does not write or endorse them.

S&P 500 live update log

Every 30 minutes Kumo checks the sky again. Newest first.

z z

Market closed – next update when Wall Street (NYSE) opens

TODAY6

  1. $7,596.10+0.00%Quiet half hour: S&P 500 held near $7,596.10
  2. $7,595.80+0.04%Calm skies: S&P 500 stayed close to $7,595.80
  3. $7,592.80+0.07%Buyers lifted S&P 500 to $7,592.80 (+0.07%)
  4. $7,587.40−0.14%Sellers pushed S&P 500 down to $7,587.40 (−0.14%)
  5. $7,597.70−0.04%Calm skies: S&P 500 stayed close to $7,597.70
  6. $7,601.10−0.00%S&P 500 drifted sideways around $7,601.10
Show all 16 updates
  1. $7,601.30−0.02%Hit a new 24h high of $7,604.50, closed at $7,601.30
  2. $7,603.10+0.02%Hit a new 24h high of $7,604.00, closed at $7,603.10
  3. $7,601.40+0.03%S&P 500 drifted sideways around $7,601.40
  4. $7,599.50+0.03%Quiet half hour: S&P 500 held near $7,599.50
  5. $7,597.40+0.01%Calm skies: S&P 500 stayed close to $7,597.40
  6. $7,597.000.00%S&P 500 drifted sideways around $7,597.00
  7. $7,597.00+0.01%Quiet half hour: S&P 500 held near $7,597.00
  8. $7,596.10+0.01%Calm skies: S&P 500 stayed close to $7,596.10
  9. $7,595.00−0.00%S&P 500 drifted sideways around $7,595.00
  10. $7,595.30+0.03%Quiet half hour: S&P 500 held near $7,595.30

S&P 500 prediction FAQ

What is the S&P 500 price prediction for today?

For today we expect S&P 500 to trade mostly between $7,557.49 and $7,628.65. The outlook is light rain (slightly bearish), with a 40% chance of the sunny scenario playing out first. This range is updated every 30 minutes.

What is the S&P 500 prediction for tomorrow?

For Monday our model points to a range of $7,553.65 to $7,633.19, centred near $7,593.32 (−0.04% from now).

Is S&P 500 going up or down?

Right now the signals are slightly bearish: 2 indicators lean up and 3 lean down. S&P 500 is down 0.40% over the past week.

What are the S&P 500 support and resistance levels?

The nearest resistance (ceiling) is $7,610.33 and the nearest support (floor) is $7,579.00. Today's classic pivot point is $7,584.70, with R1 at $7,594.10 and S1 at $7,579.00.

What is the S&P 500 forecast for this week?

Over the next 7 days we expect S&P 500 to stay roughly between $7,482.49 and $7,692.76. Weekly ranges are wider because uncertainty grows with time.

Is S&P 500 a buy or a sell today?

No signal here is a trade recommendation. The current read for SPX is 2 bullish / 2 neutral / 3 bearish across our seven indicators.

How volatile is S&P 500 right now?

S&P 500 has a typical daily move of about 0.52% based on the last 60 days. In the last 24 hours it moved between $7,583.00 and $7,604.50.

How accurate is this S&P 500 prediction?

The ranges come from recent volatility, so roughly two days in three S&P 500 should finish inside the 24-hour band. Surprise news, earnings or liquidations can push it outside.

How often is this S&P 500 analysis updated?

Every 30 minutes while the market is trading. The time of the last update is shown at the top of the page.

Where does the S&P 500 price data come from?

Prices come from public exchange data (from a single public venue). See our methodology page for details.

What is the S&P 500 price prediction for 2030?

Our statistical base case for the end of 2030 is about $10,026.01, with a wide 80% range from $7,475.94 (bear case) to $13,445.92 (bull case). It is built from S&P 500's own volatility and a heavily shrunk version of its past-year trend, so treat it as a scenario, not a target.

Where could S&P 500 be at the end of 2027?

For the end of 2027 the model's base case is $8,207.69 (+8.05% from today), with a bear case near $7,029.02 and a bull case near $9,584.00. The range is refreshed every 30 minutes as new prices arrive.

Alex Wu, Independent market analyst

About the analyst

Alex Wu

Independent market analyst

Independent market analyst focused on crypto, DeFi, perps and FX. Driven by data. Alex designed the Kumocast weather model and reviews its methodology.

The numbers on this page are produced automatically every 30 minutes by the Kumocast engine – there are no hand-picked calls. Alex sets the rules, checks the accuracy tracker and updates the methodology when the model changes.

Follow @OnchainUalexwu@kumocast.io

How we make this forecast

Every 30 minutes Kumocast reads public price data and runs it through seven classic indicators, support and resistance detection and a volatility model. The weather word sums up the combined mood score, from −100 (rainy) to +100 (sunny). Ranges are statistical estimates, not promises. Read the full methodology

Data: Hyperliquid (trade.xyz)

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