kumocast

EUR/USD Forecast & Prediction Today – November 1, 2026

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Alex Wu, Independent market analystModel by · auto-updated
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Euro / US Dollar price: 1.11480

−0.12% 24h

Rainy

bearish · confidence 78%

Euro / US Dollar analysis today

Euro / US Dollar is in a rainy spell – trend and momentum both point down. Euro / US Dollar is trading at 1.11480, down 0.12% over the last 24 hours, after moving between 1.11460 and 1.11740.

Our model's mood score is -72 out of 100 (bearish). The nearest ceiling (resistance) is 1.11800 and the nearest floor (support) is 1.11240. Over the next 24 hours, the most likely range is 1.11080 to 1.11759.

A break above 1.11800 would open the way towards 1.11960. If 1.11240 gives way, Euro / US Dollar could slide towards 1.11175. Euro / US Dollar in brief – The most traded currency pair; it moves on the gap between ECB and Fed interest-rate expectations and on US data.

Over the past week Euro / US Dollar has lost 0.63%, and over the past month it has lost 0.93%. Price is 0.29% under resistance and 0.22% over support; for comparison, Euro / US Dollar usually moves around 0.22% a day.

See all forex forecasts today →

Euro / US Dollar chart: last 48 hours and next 24

Real EUR/USD price (solid line) and the 24-hour forecast range (shaded). The cone widens because uncertainty grows with time.

NowCeiling1.11800Floor1.1124000:0012:0000:0012:0000:0012:00UTC

Forecast ranges: 4 hours, 24 hours, 7 days

Balloon height = likely range. About two times out of three, Euro / US Dollar should stay inside each balloon.

Now 1.114801.115941.11317Next 4 hours1.117591.11080Next 24 hours1.120221.10704Next 7 days
  • Next 4 hours: 1.11317 – 1.11594
  • Next 24 hours: 1.11080 – 1.11759
  • Next 7 days: 1.10704 – 1.12022

Buyers vs sellers

Who pulled harder in the last 24 hours? We compare the value traded in rising and falling 30-minute candles.

Sellers 51%Buyers 49%

Buyers 49% · Sellers 51% (last 24h)

Order-book mountains

Resting buy and sell orders within 2% of the price, shown as two mountains. Flags mark the biggest walls.

1.100871.098081.11201Buy orders1.128741.120371.13431Sell orders

Sunny vs rainy: what happens next?

The two scenarios to watch for Euro / US Dollar today.

Sunny scenario

If 1.11480 breaks above 1.11800 → 1.11960

28%

Rainy scenario

If it breaks below 1.11240 → 1.11175

72%

Mood dials

Our indicator dashboard: trend, momentum and stretch at a glance.

  • RSI (14, daily)

    36

    Bearish

    sellers have the upper hand

  • MACD (4h)

    Below signal

    Bearish

    momentum is pointing down

  • Trend (EMA 20/50, 4h)

    Downtrend

    Bearish

    short trend is below the medium trend

  • Long trend (EMA 200, daily)

    Price below

    Bearish

    long-term trend is down

  • Stochastic (4h)

    44

    Bearish

    turning down

  • Trend strength (ADX)

    38

    Neutral

    a strong trend is in place

  • Bollinger position (daily)

    9%

    Neutral

    inside the normal band

  • What the dials say

    0 of 7 indicators lean bullish and 5 lean bearish. RSI (14, daily): sellers have the upper hand; MACD (4h): momentum is pointing down; Trend (EMA 20/50, 4h): short trend is below the medium trend.

Hour-by-hour weather

The last 12 hours of Euro / US Dollar, hour by hour.

  1. 09:00Cloudy0.00%
  2. 10:00Cloudy+0.01%
  3. 11:00Cloudy0.00%
  4. 12:00Cloudy−0.01%
  5. 13:00Cloudy0.00%
  6. 14:00Light rain−0.04%
  7. 15:00Partly sunny+0.08%
  8. 16:00Cloudy+0.03%
  9. 17:00Cloudy−0.01%
  10. 18:00Cloudy−0.03%
  11. 19:00Rainy−0.11%
  12. 20:00Light rain−0.09%

Today in one line: 1 of the last 12 hours were bright for Euro / US Dollar; the day is net negative so far.

The sun's path: trading sessions

How Euro / US Dollar behaved in each of today's three main sessions.

AsiaLondonNew York

  • Asia

    Done

    High 1.11700 · Low 1.11590

    −0.03%

  • London

    Done

    High 1.11720 · Low 1.11590

    −0.04%

  • New York

    Done

    High 1.11740 · Low 1.11530

    −0.02%

Euro / US Dollar 7-day forecast

Day-by-day ranges for the coming week. Bars get wider as uncertainty grows.

likely rangeprice now▲ / ▼ change of the range middle vs now

  1. MondayNov 2

    Rainy – likely between 1.11195 and 1.11694

    ▼ 0.03%
  2. TuesdayNov 3

    Rainy – likely between 1.11056 and 1.11761

    ▼ 0.06%
  3. WednesdayNov 4

    Light rain – likely between 1.10942 and 1.11805

    ▼ 0.10%
  4. ThursdayNov 5

    Light rain – likely between 1.10840 and 1.11836

    ▼ 0.13%
  5. FridayNov 6

    Light rain – likely between 1.10745 and 1.11859

    ▼ 0.16%
  6. SaturdayNov 7

    Light rain – likely between 1.10657 and 1.11876

    ▼ 0.19%
  7. SundayNov 8

    Light rain – likely between 1.10573 and 1.11889

    ▼ 0.23%

EUR/USD forecast 2026–2030

Long-term scenarios from pure statistics: Euro / US Dollar's yearly volatility is about 5% and its trend was −8.14% over the past year. The base case keeps only a small, capped part of that trend; the bear and bull cases show the 10% and 90% edges of the likely spread.

Year endBear caseBase caseBull case
20261.083641.11021−0.41%1.13743
20271.014301.08228−2.92%1.15482
20280.965581.05498−5.37%1.15265
20290.924021.02844−7.75%1.14465
20300.886691.00256−10.07%1.13357

Price today: 1.11480 (black line). Nobody can know where Euro / US Dollar will trade in five years – these ranges show how far it could plausibly travel given its own history, not a promise. Not financial advice.

How accurate is our Euro / US Dollar forecast?

We replay the daily version of the Kumocast range model on the last 30 finished days, using only data that was available before each day. A good one-standard-deviation range should catch the next close about 68% of the time.

73%Next-day range hit rate22 of 30 days closed inside the range (target ≈68%)
73%7-day range hit rate22 of 30 weekly ranges held
±0.25%Average daily rangehow wide the next-day range was on average – narrower means a calmer market

Last 30 days

  1. 2026-10-02: inside range
  2. 2026-10-03: inside range
  3. 2026-10-04: inside range
  4. 2026-10-05: outside range
  5. 2026-10-06: outside range
  6. 2026-10-07: outside range
  7. 2026-10-08: inside range
  8. 2026-10-09: inside range
  9. 2026-10-10: inside range
  10. 2026-10-11: inside range
  11. 2026-10-12: outside range
  12. 2026-10-13: outside range
  13. 2026-10-14: inside range
  14. 2026-10-15: inside range
  15. 2026-10-16: inside range
  16. 2026-10-17: inside range
  17. 2026-10-18: inside range
  18. 2026-10-19: inside range
  19. 2026-10-20: inside range
  20. 2026-10-21: inside range
  21. 2026-10-22: inside range
  22. 2026-10-23: inside range
  23. 2026-10-24: inside range
  24. 2026-10-25: inside range
  25. 2026-10-26: outside range
  26. 2026-10-27: outside range
  27. 2026-10-28: outside range
  28. 2026-10-29: inside range
  29. 2026-10-30: inside range
  30. 2026-10-31: inside range

close inside the rangeclose outside

Verdict: over the last month the Euro / US Dollar ranges were well calibrated. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results. How we score ourselves

Why is Euro / US Dollar moving? News and events

The forecast is pure maths, but prices react to news. Here are the latest Euro / US Dollar headlines and the scheduled economic releases that could move it this week.

Latest headlines

Headlines via Google News. Kumocast does not write or endorse them.

Euro / US Dollar live update log

Every 30 minutes Kumo checks the sky again. Newest first.

z z

Market closed – next update when Forex market opens

TODAY6

  1. 1.11480−0.09%Dipped to a new 24h low of 1.11460, closed at 1.11480
  2. 1.115800.00%Dipped to a new 24h low of 1.11530, closed at 1.11580
  3. 1.11580−0.05%Dipped to a new 24h low of 1.11570, closed at 1.11580
  4. 1.11640−0.02%Hit a new 24h high of 1.11740, closed at 1.11640
  5. 1.11660−0.03%Calm skies: Euro / US Dollar stayed close to 1.11660
  6. 1.116900.00%Hit a new 24h high of 1.11740, closed at 1.11690
Show all 16 updates
  1. 1.116900.00%Quiet half hour: Euro / US Dollar held near 1.11690
  2. 1.11690+0.01%Calm skies: Euro / US Dollar stayed close to 1.11690
  3. 1.11680+0.01%Hit a new 24h high of 1.11730, closed at 1.11680
  4. 1.11670+0.01%Quiet half hour: Euro / US Dollar held near 1.11670
  5. 1.11660+0.05%Dipped to a new 24h low of 1.11570, closed at 1.11660
  6. 1.11600+0.03%Dipped to a new 24h low of 1.11570, closed at 1.11600
  7. 1.11570−0.03%Dipped to a new 24h low of 1.11570, closed at 1.11570
  8. 1.11600−0.01%Dipped to a new 24h low of 1.11590, closed at 1.11600
  9. 1.11610+0.02%Euro / US Dollar drifted sideways around 1.11610
  10. 1.115900.00%Dipped to a new 24h low of 1.11590, closed at 1.11590

Euro / US Dollar prediction FAQ

What is the Euro / US Dollar price prediction for today?

For today we expect Euro / US Dollar to trade mostly between 1.11080 and 1.11759. The outlook is rainy (bearish), with a 28% chance of the sunny scenario playing out first. This range is updated every 30 minutes.

What is the Euro / US Dollar prediction for tomorrow?

For Monday our model points to a range of 1.11195 to 1.11694, centred near 1.11444 (−0.03% from now).

Is Euro / US Dollar going up or down?

Right now the signals are bearish: 0 indicators lean up and 5 lean down. Euro / US Dollar is down 0.63% over the past week.

What are the Euro / US Dollar support and resistance levels?

The nearest resistance (ceiling) is 1.11800 and the nearest support (floor) is 1.11240. Today's classic pivot point is 1.11600, with R1 at 1.11800 and S1 at 1.11440.

What is the Euro / US Dollar forecast for this week?

Over the next 7 days we expect Euro / US Dollar to stay roughly between 1.10704 and 1.12022. Weekly ranges are wider because uncertainty grows with time.

Is Euro / US Dollar a buy or a sell today?

Kumocast does not give buy or sell advice. Our indicators currently read 0 bullish, 2 neutral and 5 bearish. Always use your own judgement and risk management.

How volatile is Euro / US Dollar right now?

Euro / US Dollar has a typical daily move of about 0.22% based on the last 60 days. In the last 24 hours it moved between 1.11460 and 1.11740.

How accurate is this Euro / US Dollar prediction?

Think of it like a weather forecast: the 24-hour range for Euro / US Dollar is built to hold about 68% of the time. It is a probability, not a promise.

How often is this Euro / US Dollar analysis updated?

The page rebuilds itself about every 30 minutes with fresh EUR/USD data. The "updated" badge at the top shows exactly when.

Where does the Euro / US Dollar price data come from?

Prices come from public exchange data (from a single public venue). See our methodology page for details.

What is the Euro / US Dollar price prediction for 2030?

Our statistical base case for the end of 2030 is about 1.00256, with a wide 80% range from 0.88669 (bear case) to 1.13357 (bull case). It is built from Euro / US Dollar's own volatility and a heavily shrunk version of its past-year trend, so treat it as a scenario, not a target.

Where could Euro / US Dollar be at the end of 2027?

For the end of 2027 the model's base case is 1.08228 (−2.92% from today), with a bear case near 1.01430 and a bull case near 1.15482. The range is refreshed every 30 minutes as new prices arrive.

Alex Wu, Independent market analyst

About the analyst

Alex Wu

Independent market analyst

Independent market analyst focused on crypto, DeFi, perps and FX. Driven by data. Alex designed the Kumocast weather model and reviews its methodology.

The numbers on this page are produced automatically every 30 minutes by the Kumocast engine – there are no hand-picked calls. Alex sets the rules, checks the accuracy tracker and updates the methodology when the model changes.

Follow @OnchainUalexwu@kumocast.io

How we make this forecast

Every 30 minutes Kumocast reads public price data and runs it through seven classic indicators, support and resistance detection and a volatility model. The weather word sums up the combined mood score, from −100 (rainy) to +100 (sunny). Ranges are statistical estimates, not promises. Read the full methodology

Data: Hyperliquid (trade.xyz)

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