kumocast

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction Today – November 1, 2026

LIVE · next update ~
Alex Wu, Independent market analystModel by · auto-updated
Crypto market (24/7)

Bitcoin price: $77,888.00

+0.46% 24h

Light rain

slightly bearish · confidence 59%

Bitcoin analysis today

Bitcoin leans lower today, though the selling is not heavy. Bitcoin is trading at $77,888.00, up 0.46% over the last 24 hours, after moving between $77,506.89 and $78,285.00.

Our model's mood score is -35 out of 100 (slightly bearish). The nearest ceiling (resistance) is $78,179.35 and the nearest floor (support) is $77,198.68. Over the next 24 hours, the most likely range is $76,695.95 to $78,902.51.

A break above $78,179.35 would open the way towards $78,285.00. If $77,198.68 gives way, Bitcoin could slide towards $76,888.00. Bitcoin in brief – The largest cryptocurrency; it usually sets the direction for the whole crypto market and reacts to ETF flows, US interest-rate expectations and the dollar.

Over the past week Bitcoin has lost 2.83%, and over the past month it has lost 7.84%. Price is 0.37% under resistance and 0.89% over support; for comparison, Bitcoin usually moves around 1.67% a day.

See all crypto price predictions today →Related: Strategy (MicroStrategy) stock prediction

Bitcoin chart: last 48 hours and next 24

Real BTC price (solid line) and the 24-hour forecast range (shaded). The cone widens because uncertainty grows with time.

NowCeiling$78,179.35Floor$77,198.6800:0012:0000:0012:0000:0012:00UTC

Forecast ranges: 4 hours, 24 hours, 7 days

Balloon height = likely range. About two times out of three, Bitcoin should stay inside each balloon.

Now $77,888.00$78,300.58$77,399.13Next 4 hours$78,902.51$76,695.95Next 24 hours$81,094.76$74,231.44Next 7 days
  • Next 4 hours: $77,399.13 – $78,300.58
  • Next 24 hours: $76,695.95 – $78,902.51
  • Next 7 days: $74,231.44 – $81,094.76

Buyers vs sellers

Who pulled harder in the last 24 hours? We compare the value traded in rising and falling 30-minute candles.

Sellers 45%Buyers 55%

Buyers 55% · Sellers 45% (last 24h)

Order-book mountains

Where are the big orders? Bids on the left, asks on the right, the largest walls flagged.

$77,888.00$77,693.28Buy orders$77,888.00$78,082.72Sell orders

Long vs short accounts

Share of trader accounts holding long versus short positions on Binance Futures.

Long 69%Short 31%

69% of accounts are long

Liquidation magnets

Estimated price zones where leveraged positions would be liquidated. Price is often pulled towards big clusters.

estimatedPrice $77,888.0010×$70,536.54 (−9.4%)10×$85,345.31 (+9.6%)25×$75,212.99 (−3.4%)25×$80,668.86 (+3.6%)50×$76,771.81 (−1.4%)50×$79,110.04 (+1.6%)Shorts liquidated aboveLongs liquidated below

Sunny vs rainy: what happens next?

Sunny if buyers break the ceiling, rainy if sellers break the floor.

Sunny scenario

If $77,888.00 breaks above $78,179.35 → $78,285.00

40%

Rainy scenario

If it breaks below $77,198.68 → $76,888.00

60%

Mood dials

Seven classic indicators, each read as bullish, neutral or bearish.

  • RSI (14, daily)

    37

    Bearish

    sellers have the upper hand

  • MACD (4h)

    Above signal

    Bullish

    momentum is pointing up

  • Trend (EMA 20/50, 4h)

    Downtrend

    Bearish

    short trend is below the medium trend

  • Long trend (EMA 200, daily)

    Price above

    Bullish

    long-term trend is up

  • Stochastic (4h)

    80

    Bearish

    turning down

  • Trend strength (ADX)

    21

    Neutral

    no strong trend – range trading

  • Bollinger position (daily)

    9%

    Neutral

    inside the normal band

  • What the dials say

    2 of 7 indicators lean bullish and 3 lean bearish. RSI (14, daily): sellers have the upper hand; MACD (4h): momentum is pointing up; Trend (EMA 20/50, 4h): short trend is below the medium trend.

Hour-by-hour weather

Hour-by-hour weather so far: sun for rising hours, rain for falling ones.

  1. 09:00Cloudy+0.12%
  2. 10:00Light rain−0.15%
  3. 11:00Light rain−0.20%
  4. 12:00Partly sunny+0.17%
  5. 13:00Cloudy+0.06%
  6. 14:00Cloudy+0.06%
  7. 15:00Cloudy+0.04%
  8. 16:00Cloudy+0.05%
  9. 17:00Light rain−0.25%
  10. 18:00Light rain−0.15%
  11. 19:00Cloudy−0.04%
  12. 20:00Cloudy+0.11%

Today in one line: 1 of the last 12 hours were bright for Bitcoin; the day is net positive so far.

The sun's path: trading sessions

How Bitcoin behaved in each of today's three main sessions.

AsiaLondonNew York

  • Asia

    Done

    High $78,068.00 · Low $77,517.20

    +0.58%

  • London

    Done

    High $78,285.00 · Low $77,749.09

    −0.19%

  • New York

    Done

    High $78,172.70 · Low $77,622.81

    +0.02%

Bitcoin 7-day forecast

Day-by-day ranges for the coming week. Bars get wider as uncertainty grows.

likely rangeprice now▲ / ▼ change of the range middle vs now

  1. MondayNov 2

    Light rain – likely between $76,507.61 and $79,107.99

    ▼ 0.12%
  2. TuesdayNov 3

    Light rain – likely between $75,891.00 and $79,564.37

    ▼ 0.23%
  3. WednesdayNov 4

    Light rain – likely between $75,400.71 and $79,894.59

    ▼ 0.35%
  4. ThursdayNov 5

    Light rain – likely between $74,976.07 and $80,159.33

    ▼ 0.47%
  5. FridayNov 6

    Light rain – likely between $74,593.55 and $80,382.10

    ▼ 0.58%
  6. SaturdayNov 7

    Cloudy – likely between $74,241.07 and $80,575.00

    ▼ 0.70%
  7. SundayNov 8

    Cloudy – likely between $73,911.45 and $80,745.19

    ▼ 0.82%

Bitcoin price prediction 2026–2030

Long-term scenarios from pure statistics: Bitcoin's yearly volatility is about 35% and its trend was +22.05% over the past year. The base case keeps only a small, capped part of that trend; the bear and bull cases show the 10% and 90% edges of the likely spread.

Year endBear caseBase caseBull case
2026$65,607.12$78,645.73+0.97%$94,275.61
2027$51,377.04$83,490.62+7.19%$135,677.02
2028$45,693.51$88,648.48+13.82%$171,984.02
2029$42,230.88$94,109.58+20.83%$209,718.88
2030$39,845.45$99,907.09+28.27%$250,503.55

Price today: $77,888.00 (black line). Nobody can know where Bitcoin will trade in five years – these ranges show how far it could plausibly travel given its own history, not a promise. Not financial advice.

How accurate is our Bitcoin forecast?

We replay the daily version of the Kumocast range model on the last 30 finished days, using only data that was available before each day. A good one-standard-deviation range should catch the next close about 68% of the time.

87%Next-day range hit rate26 of 30 days closed inside the range (target ≈68%)
97%7-day range hit rate29 of 30 weekly ranges held
±2.0%Average daily rangehow wide the next-day range was on average – narrower means a calmer market

Last 30 days

  1. 2026-10-02: inside range
  2. 2026-10-03: inside range
  3. 2026-10-04: inside range
  4. 2026-10-05: inside range
  5. 2026-10-06: inside range
  6. 2026-10-07: outside range
  7. 2026-10-08: inside range
  8. 2026-10-09: inside range
  9. 2026-10-10: inside range
  10. 2026-10-11: inside range
  11. 2026-10-12: outside range
  12. 2026-10-13: inside range
  13. 2026-10-14: inside range
  14. 2026-10-15: inside range
  15. 2026-10-16: inside range
  16. 2026-10-17: inside range
  17. 2026-10-18: inside range
  18. 2026-10-19: inside range
  19. 2026-10-20: inside range
  20. 2026-10-21: inside range
  21. 2026-10-22: outside range
  22. 2026-10-23: inside range
  23. 2026-10-24: inside range
  24. 2026-10-25: inside range
  25. 2026-10-26: inside range
  26. 2026-10-27: inside range
  27. 2026-10-28: inside range
  28. 2026-10-29: outside range
  29. 2026-10-30: inside range
  30. 2026-10-31: inside range

close inside the rangeclose outside

Verdict: over the last month the Bitcoin ranges were a little too cautious (ranges wider than needed). Past accuracy does not guarantee future results. How we score ourselves

Why is Bitcoin moving? News and events

The forecast is pure maths, but prices react to news. Here are the latest Bitcoin headlines and the scheduled economic releases that could move it this week.

Latest headlines

Headlines via Google News. Kumocast does not write or endorse them.

Upcoming economic events

  • USD · ISM Manufacturing PMI · forecast 54.7 · previous 54.5
    Medium
  • USD · JOLTS Job Openings · forecast 7.11M · previous 7.08M
    Medium
  • USD · Congressional Elections
    High
  • USD · ISM Services PMI · forecast 54.9 · previous 54.9
    Medium
  • USD · Unemployment Claims · forecast 197K · previous 194K
    Medium
  • USD · Average Hourly Earnings m/m · forecast 0.3% · previous 0.1%
    High

Calendar data: ForexFactory. Volatility often jumps around high-impact releases.

Bitcoin live update log

Every 30 minutes Kumo checks the sky again. Newest first.

TODAY6

  1. $77,888.00−0.02%Quiet half hour: Bitcoin held near $77,888.00
  2. $77,906.33+0.14%Bitcoin edged higher to $77,906.33 (+0.14%)
  3. $77,801.28+0.00%Bitcoin drifted sideways around $77,801.28
  4. $77,799.29−0.04%Quiet half hour: Bitcoin held near $77,799.29
  5. $77,830.01−0.08%Bitcoin eased lower to $77,830.01 (−0.08%)
  6. $77,892.00−0.07%Bitcoin slipped to $77,892.00 (−0.07%)
Show all 16 updates
  1. $77,947.18−0.04%Quiet half hour: Bitcoin held near $77,947.18
  2. $77,980.54−0.21%Bitcoin eased lower to $77,980.54 (−0.21%)
  3. $78,145.30−0.01%Bitcoin drifted sideways around $78,145.30
  4. $78,149.99+0.06%Bitcoin ticked up to $78,149.99 (+0.06%)
  5. $78,106.76+0.15%Bitcoin edged higher to $78,106.76 (+0.15%)
  6. $77,988.03−0.11%Bitcoin slipped to $77,988.03 (−0.11%)
  7. $78,072.01+0.02%Quiet half hour: Bitcoin held near $78,072.01
  8. $78,055.84+0.04%Calm skies: Bitcoin stayed close to $78,055.84
  9. $78,028.00−0.01%Bitcoin drifted sideways around $78,028.00
  10. $78,035.45+0.07%Bitcoin ticked up to $78,035.45 (+0.07%)

Bitcoin prediction FAQ

What is the Bitcoin price prediction for today?

For today we expect Bitcoin to trade mostly between $76,695.95 and $78,902.51. The outlook is light rain (slightly bearish), with a 40% chance of the sunny scenario playing out first. This range is updated every 30 minutes.

What is the Bitcoin prediction for tomorrow?

For Monday our model points to a range of $76,507.61 to $79,107.99, centred near $77,796.94 (−0.12% from now).

Is Bitcoin going up or down?

Right now the signals are slightly bearish: 2 indicators lean up and 3 lean down. Bitcoin is down 2.83% over the past week.

What are the Bitcoin support and resistance levels?

The nearest resistance (ceiling) is $78,179.35 and the nearest support (floor) is $77,198.68. Today's classic pivot point is $77,497.35, with R1 at $77,880.68 and S1 at $77,198.68.

What is the Bitcoin forecast for this week?

Over the next 7 days we expect Bitcoin to stay roughly between $74,231.44 and $81,094.76. Weekly ranges are wider because uncertainty grows with time.

Is Bitcoin a buy or a sell today?

We don't tell anyone to buy or sell Bitcoin. Right now 2 indicators read bullish, 2 neutral and 3 bearish – use that as one input, together with your own plan and a stop-loss.

How volatile is Bitcoin right now?

Bitcoin has a typical daily move of about 1.67% based on the last 60 days. In the last 24 hours it moved between $77,506.89 and $78,285.00.

How accurate is this Bitcoin prediction?

Our ranges are statistical: about two out of three times, price is expected to stay inside the 24-hour range. Markets can and do break out of any range, especially around news.

How often is this Bitcoin analysis updated?

Every 30 minutes while the market is trading. The time of the last update is shown at the top of the page.

Where does the Bitcoin price data come from?

Prices come from public exchange data (with automatic backup sources). See our methodology page for details.

What is the Bitcoin price prediction for 2030?

Our statistical base case for the end of 2030 is about $99,907.09, with a wide 80% range from $39,845.45 (bear case) to $250,503.55 (bull case). It is built from Bitcoin's own volatility and a heavily shrunk version of its past-year trend, so treat it as a scenario, not a target.

Where could Bitcoin be at the end of 2027?

For the end of 2027 the model's base case is $83,490.62 (+7.19% from today), with a bear case near $51,377.04 and a bull case near $135,677.02. The range is refreshed every 30 minutes as new prices arrive.

Alex Wu, Independent market analyst

About the analyst

Alex Wu

Independent market analyst

Independent market analyst focused on crypto, DeFi, perps and FX. Driven by data. Alex designed the Kumocast weather model and reviews its methodology.

The numbers on this page are produced automatically every 30 minutes by the Kumocast engine – there are no hand-picked calls. Alex sets the rules, checks the accuracy tracker and updates the methodology when the model changes.

Follow @OnchainUalexwu@kumocast.io

How we make this forecast

Every 30 minutes Kumocast reads public price data and runs it through seven classic indicators, support and resistance detection and a volatility model. The weather word sums up the combined mood score, from −100 (rainy) to +100 (sunny). Ranges are statistical estimates, not promises. Read the full methodology

Data: Binance

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