How Kumocast forecasts work
Data
- Crypto: Binance spot (backup: OKX, then Hyperliquid). Pi Network: OKX. Kaspa: Hyperliquid.
- Gold, silver, platinum, palladium, copper, oil, natural gas, stock indices, stocks and forex: Hyperliquid trade.xyz markets, which trade 24/7 (backups: Binance Futures and OKX perpetuals where listed). Cross rates such as EUR/JPY are calculated from EUR/USD and USD/JPY.
- We use 30-minute, 4-hour and daily candles. Pages refresh about every 30 minutes. When the underlying exchange (for example Wall Street) is closed, we show the latest 24/7 venue price and say clearly that the main market is closed.
The weather (mood score)
A score from −100 to +100 adds up simple, fixed rules: price above or below the 20 EMA (4h); 20 EMA above or below the 50 EMA (4h); price above or below the 50 and 200 EMA (daily); RSI on the 4h and daily charts; MACD histogram (4h); the slope of the last three hours; and the 24-hour change. Score ≥ 45 = Sunny, 15 to 44 = Partly sunny, −14 to 14 = Cloudy, −44 to −15 = Light rain, ≤ −45 = Rainy.
Ceilings and floors
Swing highs and lows on the 4-hour and daily charts are clustered into levels; levels touched more often are stronger. Classic daily pivot points (P, R1, R2, S1, S2) are added. The nearest level above price is the ceiling (resistance); the nearest below is the floor (support).
Ranges
We measure recent volatility – a blend of the plain standard deviation of returns and an exponentially weighted (EWMA, RiskMetrics-style) estimate that reacts faster to new turbulence – and project it forward with the square-root-of-time rule. Each range covers roughly one standard deviation, so price is expected to stay inside it about two times out of three. The centre is tilted slightly in the direction of the mood score. The 7-day outlook uses daily volatility and a small, capped drift; uncertainty grows each day.
Scenarios
The sunny scenario is a break above the ceiling towards the next level up; the rainy scenario is a break below the floor towards the next level down. The chance shown for the sunny scenario is 50% adjusted by the mood score and kept between 20% and 80%.
Extra gauges
Buyers vs sellers compares the value traded in rising and falling 30-minute candles over the last 24 hours. Order-book depth and long/short account ratios come from exchange APIs where available. Liquidation "magnets" are an estimate based on typical 10×, 25× and 50× leverage from the last day's average price – they are not exchange data.
Accuracy tracker
Every page scores itself. We replay the daily version of the range model on the last 30 finished days, using only the data that existed before each day, and count how often the next close landed inside the range (a good one-standard-deviation range should be right about 68% of the time). We do the same for 7-day ranges and show how wide the ranges were on average. Nothing is stored or edited by hand, so the score cannot be cherry-picked.
Long-term outlook (2026–2030)
The year-end scenarios use the market's own yearly volatility and only a small, capped share of its past-year trend. The base case is the middle of that spread; the bear and bull cases are its 10% and 90% edges. They widen every year because uncertainty compounds. They are scenarios, not targets.
News and events
Headlines come from Google News and scheduled releases from the ForexFactory calendar. They are shown for context only and never change the numbers. Stock and index pages also show the official exchange close next to our 24/7 price.
Who is behind the model
The rules were designed by Alex Wu, an independent market analyst focused on crypto, DeFi, perps and FX (@OnchainU). He reviews the accuracy tracker and updates this page whenever the model changes.
Limits
These are statistical readings, not promises. News, earnings, central-bank decisions and liquidations can move prices far outside any range. Nothing on Kumocast is financial advice.