kumocast

USD/JPY Forecast & Prediction Today – November 1, 2026

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Alex Wu, Independent market analystModel by · auto-updated
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US Dollar / Japanese Yen price: 157.460

−0.01% 24h

Rainy

bearish · confidence 64%

US Dollar / Japanese Yen analysis today

Stormy for US Dollar / Japanese Yen: most signals lean lower. US Dollar / Japanese Yen is trading at 157.460, down 0.01% over the last 24 hours, after moving between 157.320 and 157.490.

Our model's mood score is -58 out of 100 (bearish). The nearest ceiling (resistance) is 158.186 and the nearest floor (support) is 156.508. Over the next 24 hours, the most likely range is 156.995 to 157.808.

If buyers push through 158.186, the next stop is around 158.505. A drop below 156.508 would put 155.760 in focus. US Dollar / Japanese Yen in brief – It follows the gap between US and Japanese bond yields and the risk of Japanese intervention to support the yen.

The bigger picture: +0.43% in 7 days and −0.30% in 30 days for US Dollar / Japanese Yen. Price is 0.46% under resistance and 0.60% over support; for comparison, US Dollar / Japanese Yen usually moves around 0.34% a day.

See all forex forecasts today →Related: Nikkei 225 prediction

US Dollar / Japanese Yen chart: last 48 hours and next 24

Past 48 hours of US Dollar / Japanese Yen on the left, the forecast cone for the next 24 hours on the right. Dashed lines mark the ceiling and the floor.

NowCeiling158.186Floor156.50800:0012:0000:0012:0000:0012:00UTC

Forecast ranges: 4 hours, 24 hours, 7 days

Each balloon stretches from the expected low to the expected high. Longer trips need bigger balloons.

Now 157.460157.602157.270Next 4 hours157.808156.995Next 24 hours158.676155.846Next 7 days
  • Next 4 hours: 157.270 – 157.602
  • Next 24 hours: 156.995 – 157.808
  • Next 7 days: 155.846 – 158.676

Buyers vs sellers

A simple tug of war: money flowing through green candles against money flowing through red ones.

Sellers 40%Buyers 60%

Buyers 60% · Sellers 40% (last 24h)

Order-book mountains

Resting buy and sell orders within 2% of the price, shown as two mountains. Flags mark the biggest walls.

155.885156.673155.492Buy orders159.035159.428158.641Sell orders

Sunny vs rainy: what happens next?

Two ways the next move could go, with the chance our model gives each.

Sunny scenario

If 157.460 breaks above 158.186 → 158.505

33%

Rainy scenario

If it breaks below 156.508 → 155.760

67%

Mood dials

Seven classic indicators, each read as bullish, neutral or bearish.

  • RSI (14, daily)

    49

    Neutral

    balanced

  • MACD (4h)

    Below signal

    Bearish

    momentum is pointing down

  • Trend (EMA 20/50, 4h)

    Downtrend

    Bearish

    short trend is below the medium trend

  • Long trend (EMA 200, daily)

    Price below

    Bearish

    long-term trend is down

  • Stochastic (4h)

    68

    Bearish

    turning down

  • Trend strength (ADX)

    11

    Neutral

    no strong trend – range trading

  • Bollinger position (daily)

    43%

    Neutral

    inside the normal band

  • What the dials say

    0 of 7 indicators lean bullish and 4 lean bearish. RSI (14, daily): balanced; MACD (4h): momentum is pointing down; Trend (EMA 20/50, 4h): short trend is below the medium trend.

Hour-by-hour weather

How each of the last twelve hours went for USD/JPY.

  1. 09:00Cloudy0.00%
  2. 10:00Cloudy0.00%
  3. 11:00Cloudy−0.01%
  4. 12:00Light rain−0.04%
  5. 13:00Cloudy−0.01%
  6. 14:00Partly sunny+0.04%
  7. 15:00Cloudy−0.01%
  8. 16:00Cloudy−0.01%
  9. 17:00Cloudy+0.01%
  10. 18:00Partly sunny+0.03%
  11. 19:00Cloudy0.00%
  12. 20:00Cloudy0.00%

Today in one line: 2 of the last 12 hours were bright for US Dollar / Japanese Yen; the day is net negative so far.

The sun's path: trading sessions

How US Dollar / Japanese Yen behaved in each of today's three main sessions.

AsiaLondonNew York

  • Asia

    Done

    High 157.490 · Low 157.320

    +0.01%

  • London

    Done

    High 157.490 · Low 157.320

    0.00%

  • New York

    Done

    High 157.490 · Low 157.360

    +0.02%

US Dollar / Japanese Yen 7-day forecast

The week ahead, one row per day, with the expected range and direction.

likely rangeprice now▲ / ▼ change of the range middle vs now

  1. MondayNov 2

    Rainy – likely between 156.864 and 157.934

    ▼ 0.04%
  2. TuesdayNov 3

    Light rain – likely between 156.581 and 158.094

    ▼ 0.08%
  3. WednesdayNov 4

    Light rain – likely between 156.350 and 158.203

    ▼ 0.12%
  4. ThursdayNov 5

    Light rain – likely between 156.146 and 158.285

    ▼ 0.16%
  5. FridayNov 6

    Light rain – likely between 155.959 and 158.349

    ▼ 0.20%
  6. SaturdayNov 7

    Light rain – likely between 155.785 and 158.402

    ▼ 0.24%
  7. SundayNov 8

    Light rain – likely between 155.619 and 158.445

    ▼ 0.28%

USD/JPY forecast 2026–2030

Long-term scenarios from pure statistics: US Dollar / Japanese Yen's yearly volatility is about 7% and its trend was +1.25% over the past year. The base case keeps only a small, capped part of that trend; the bear and bull cases show the 10% and 90% edges of the likely spread.

Year endBear caseBase caseBull case
2026152.054157.555+0.06%163.256
2027143.783158.144+0.43%173.939
2028139.394158.737+0.81%180.763
2029136.164159.330+1.19%186.436
2030133.549159.925+1.57%191.510

Price today: 157.460 (black line). Nobody can know where US Dollar / Japanese Yen will trade in five years – these ranges show how far it could plausibly travel given its own history, not a promise. Not financial advice.

How accurate is our US Dollar / Japanese Yen forecast?

We replay the daily version of the Kumocast range model on the last 30 finished days, using only data that was available before each day. A good one-standard-deviation range should catch the next close about 68% of the time.

90%Next-day range hit rate27 of 30 days closed inside the range (target ≈68%)
100%7-day range hit rate30 of 30 weekly ranges held
±0.42%Average daily rangehow wide the next-day range was on average – narrower means a calmer market

Last 30 days

  1. 2026-10-02: inside range
  2. 2026-10-03: inside range
  3. 2026-10-04: inside range
  4. 2026-10-05: inside range
  5. 2026-10-06: inside range
  6. 2026-10-07: inside range
  7. 2026-10-08: inside range
  8. 2026-10-09: inside range
  9. 2026-10-10: inside range
  10. 2026-10-11: inside range
  11. 2026-10-12: inside range
  12. 2026-10-13: inside range
  13. 2026-10-14: inside range
  14. 2026-10-15: inside range
  15. 2026-10-16: inside range
  16. 2026-10-17: inside range
  17. 2026-10-18: inside range
  18. 2026-10-19: outside range
  19. 2026-10-20: inside range
  20. 2026-10-21: inside range
  21. 2026-10-22: outside range
  22. 2026-10-23: inside range
  23. 2026-10-24: inside range
  24. 2026-10-25: inside range
  25. 2026-10-26: outside range
  26. 2026-10-27: inside range
  27. 2026-10-28: inside range
  28. 2026-10-29: inside range
  29. 2026-10-30: inside range
  30. 2026-10-31: inside range

close inside the rangeclose outside

Verdict: over the last month the US Dollar / Japanese Yen ranges were a little too cautious (ranges wider than needed). Past accuracy does not guarantee future results. How we score ourselves

Why is US Dollar / Japanese Yen moving? News and events

The forecast is pure maths, but prices react to news. Here are the latest US Dollar / Japanese Yen headlines and the scheduled economic releases that could move it this week.

Latest headlines

Headlines via Google News. Kumocast does not write or endorse them.

US Dollar / Japanese Yen live update log

Every 30 minutes Kumo checks the sky again. Newest first.

z z

Market closed – next update when Forex market opens

TODAY6

  1. 157.4600.00%Quiet half hour: US Dollar / Japanese Yen held near 157.460
  2. 157.460+0.03%Calm skies: US Dollar / Japanese Yen stayed close to 157.460
  3. 157.4100.00%US Dollar / Japanese Yen drifted sideways around 157.410
  4. 157.410−0.03%Quiet half hour: US Dollar / Japanese Yen held near 157.410
  5. 157.4600.00%Calm skies: US Dollar / Japanese Yen stayed close to 157.460
  6. 157.4600.00%US Dollar / Japanese Yen drifted sideways around 157.460
Show all 16 updates
  1. 157.4600.00%Quiet half hour: US Dollar / Japanese Yen held near 157.460
  2. 157.460+0.01%Calm skies: US Dollar / Japanese Yen stayed close to 157.460
  3. 157.450−0.01%US Dollar / Japanese Yen drifted sideways around 157.450
  4. 157.4700.00%Quiet half hour: US Dollar / Japanese Yen held near 157.470
  5. 157.470−0.01%Calm skies: US Dollar / Japanese Yen stayed close to 157.470
  6. 157.4800.00%US Dollar / Japanese Yen drifted sideways around 157.480
  7. 157.480−0.01%Quiet half hour: US Dollar / Japanese Yen held near 157.480
  8. 157.490+0.05%US Dollar / Japanese Yen edged higher to 157.490 (+0.05%)
  9. 157.410−0.03%US Dollar / Japanese Yen drifted sideways around 157.410
  10. 157.450+0.05%US Dollar / Japanese Yen ticked up to 157.450 (+0.05%)

US Dollar / Japanese Yen prediction FAQ

What is the US Dollar / Japanese Yen price prediction for today?

For today we expect US Dollar / Japanese Yen to trade mostly between 156.995 and 157.808. The outlook is rainy (bearish), with a 33% chance of the sunny scenario playing out first. This range is updated every 30 minutes.

What is the US Dollar / Japanese Yen prediction for tomorrow?

For Monday our model points to a range of 156.864 to 157.934, centred near 157.398 (−0.04% from now).

Is US Dollar / Japanese Yen going up or down?

Right now the signals are bearish: 0 indicators lean up and 4 lean down. US Dollar / Japanese Yen is up 0.43% over the past week.

What are the US Dollar / Japanese Yen support and resistance levels?

The nearest resistance (ceiling) is 158.186 and the nearest support (floor) is 156.508. Today's classic pivot point is 157.473, with R1 at 157.557 and S1 at 157.377.

What is the US Dollar / Japanese Yen forecast for this week?

Over the next 7 days we expect US Dollar / Japanese Yen to stay roughly between 155.846 and 158.676. Weekly ranges are wider because uncertainty grows with time.

Is US Dollar / Japanese Yen a buy or a sell today?

No signal here is a trade recommendation. The current read for USD/JPY is 0 bullish / 3 neutral / 4 bearish across our seven indicators.

How volatile is US Dollar / Japanese Yen right now?

US Dollar / Japanese Yen has a typical daily move of about 0.34% based on the last 60 days. In the last 24 hours it moved between 157.320 and 157.490.

How accurate is this US Dollar / Japanese Yen prediction?

The ranges come from recent volatility, so roughly two days in three US Dollar / Japanese Yen should finish inside the 24-hour band. Surprise news, earnings or liquidations can push it outside.

How often is this US Dollar / Japanese Yen analysis updated?

The page rebuilds itself about every 30 minutes with fresh USD/JPY data. The "updated" badge at the top shows exactly when.

Where does the US Dollar / Japanese Yen price data come from?

Prices come from public exchange data (from a single public venue). See our methodology page for details.

What is the US Dollar / Japanese Yen price prediction for 2030?

Our statistical base case for the end of 2030 is about 159.925, with a wide 80% range from 133.549 (bear case) to 191.510 (bull case). It is built from US Dollar / Japanese Yen's own volatility and a heavily shrunk version of its past-year trend, so treat it as a scenario, not a target.

Where could US Dollar / Japanese Yen be at the end of 2027?

For the end of 2027 the model's base case is 158.144 (+0.43% from today), with a bear case near 143.783 and a bull case near 173.939. The range is refreshed every 30 minutes as new prices arrive.

Alex Wu, Independent market analyst

About the analyst

Alex Wu

Independent market analyst

Independent market analyst focused on crypto, DeFi, perps and FX. Driven by data. Alex designed the Kumocast weather model and reviews its methodology.

The numbers on this page are produced automatically every 30 minutes by the Kumocast engine – there are no hand-picked calls. Alex sets the rules, checks the accuracy tracker and updates the methodology when the model changes.

Follow @OnchainUalexwu@kumocast.io

How we make this forecast

Every 30 minutes Kumocast reads public price data and runs it through seven classic indicators, support and resistance detection and a volatility model. The weather word sums up the combined mood score, from −100 (rainy) to +100 (sunny). Ranges are statistical estimates, not promises. Read the full methodology

Data: Hyperliquid (trade.xyz)

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