Market Tools · Bitcoin charts
Bitcoin 200-Week Moving Average
Bitcoin is +13.2% above its 200-week moving average of $67,764. Since the line began in June 2015, only 18% of weeks closed this close to the line or below it.
The 200-week moving average is the average weekly price of the last 200 weeks (almost 4 years). It has been called Bitcoin’s long-term “floor” because the price has rarely stayed under it. The last weekly close below it was the week of Aug 10, 2026.
Kumo’s distance meter – where Bitcoin sits compared with every week since the line began
White ticks: lowest weekly close −32.3% (week of Nov 14, 2022) and highest +1422.6% (week of Dec 11, 2017). Today Bitcoin is in the Close to the line zone: not far above the long-term floor.
This week started Nov 2, 2026 and has 1 day so far, so its “close” is the latest price. Last finished week closed at $78,233.
Bitcoin price vs the 200-week moving average
Every weekly close since 2011 on a log scale (each step up the side is the same percentage move). The price line changes colour with how far it is above the blue line – cold blue when it is below, hot red when it is far above.
This week · BTC $76,699 · 200-week MA $67,764 · +13.2%
- 200-week moving average
- Price before the line existed
- Below the line
- Close to the line (+0 to +25%)
- Mild (+25 to +75%)
- Warm (+75 to +150%)
- Hot (+150 to +300%)
- Heatwave (+300% or more)
Weekly closes (Monday to Sunday, UTC), log scale. Drag to scroll, pinch or drag the dates to zoom, hover or tap for any week. Chart engine: TradingView Lightweight Charts™
Every time Bitcoin closed below the line
Worked out from every weekly close since June 2015. A “dip” starts with the first weekly close under the line and ends with the first close back above it.
| First week below | Weeks below | Back above | Lowest close vs line | Price then | 52 weeks later |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 17, 2015 | 2 | Aug 31, 2015 | −0.8% | $229 | +152% |
| Sep 7, 2015 | 3 | Sep 28, 2015 | −1.8% | $230 | +164% |
| Mar 9, 2020 | 1 | Mar 16, 2020 | −2.9% | $5,344 | +1004% |
| Jun 13, 2022 | 6 | Jul 25, 2022 | −14.2% | $20,553 | +28% |
| Aug 15, 2022 | 30 | Mar 13, 2023 | −32.3% | $21,514 | +22% |
| Jun 5, 2023 | 2 | Jun 19, 2023 | −1.9% | $25,941 | +168% |
| Aug 14, 2023 | 6 | Sep 25, 2023 | −6.7% | $26,192 | +123% |
| Oct 2, 2023 | 2 | Oct 16, 2023 | −3.5% | $27,933 | +125% |
| Jun 22, 2026 | 1 | Jun 29, 2026 | −4.8% | $59,473 | not a year yet |
| Jul 27, 2026 | 1 | Aug 3, 2026 | −0.1% | $63,500 | not a year yet |
| Aug 10, 2026 | 1 | Aug 17, 2026 | −1.8% | $62,832 | not a year yet |
Of the 8 dips that are more than a year old, Bitcoin was higher 52 weeks after the first week below the line in 8. The deepest dip went −32.3% under the line (week of Nov 14, 2022). That is a small number of examples, so treat it as history, not a rule.
The 200-week moving average, year by year
The value of the line at the last weekly close of each year, and how much it grew. The current year uses the latest week.
| Year | 200-week MA | Change in the year | BTC weekly close | BTC vs line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 (so far) | $67,764 | +19% | $76,699 | +13% |
| 2025 | $57,067 | +33% | $91,501 | +60% |
| 2024 | $42,974 | +44% | $98,327 | +129% |
| 2023 | $29,804 | +22% | $42,258 | +42% |
| 2022 | $24,402 | +30% | $16,615 | −32% |
| 2021 | $18,806 | +138% | $47,350 | +152% |
| 2020 | $7,903 | +55% | $33,098 | +319% |
| 2019 | $5,091 | +57% | $7,357 | +44% |
| 2018 | $3,234 | +134% | $4,041 | +25% |
| 2017 | $1,379 | +240% | $13,880 | +906% |
| 2016 | $406 | +56% | $998 | +146% |
| 2015 | $259 | line starts | $431 | +66% |
One year ago the line was at $55,059; today it is $67,764 (+23%). In our data the line has risen every single week since June 2015.
The 200-week moving average, explained simply
What is a moving average?
An average is what you get when you add up some prices and divide by how many there are. A moving average does that again every time a new price comes in, always using the most recent ones. Drawn as a line, it smooths out the daily ups and downs so you can see the general direction.
Why 200 weeks?
200 weeks is almost 4 years – about the length of one Bitcoin “cycle” between halvings (the moments every ~4 years when the reward for creating new bitcoin is cut in half). Averaging a whole cycle washes out both the bubbles and the crashes, leaving a slow, steady line.
How people use it
Long-term investors use the line as a rough “value zone”: looking back, weeks near or under it were some of the lowest prices of each cycle, and weeks far above it came near tops. Some people spread their buying over time (called dollar-cost averaging) and buy a little more when the price is close to the line.
The limits
It is slow by design, so it says nothing about next week. It only has about ten years of history behind it, which means only a handful of real tests. Bitcoin can fall well below it for months, as it has before, and there is no law that says the line must keep rising. It is a guide to context, not a prediction.
How to read the 200-week line in 4 steps
No trading experience needed. Kumo walks you through it.
- 1Find the blue lineIt is the average weekly price of the last 200 weeks. It moves slowly and has gone up over time.
- 2Check the distanceLook at the distance box and the meter. Today Bitcoin is +13.2% from the line – “Close to the line”.
- 3Compare with historyHover over the chart to see any week. Near the line has been historically cheap; far above it has been near past tops.
- 4Add other viewsOne line is never enough. Check the rainbow chart and the RSI before you decide anything.
Keep exploring with Kumo
- Bitcoin price predictionKumo’s live short-term forecast for today, tomorrow and the week.
- Bitcoin rainbow chartThe whole history in weather bands, from deep freeze to heatwave.
- Bitcoin RSIIs Bitcoin overbought or oversold right now?
- Bitcoin halving cyclesKumo Research on what happened after every halving.
Bitcoin 200-week moving average: questions
What is the Bitcoin 200-week moving average?
It is the average of Bitcoin’s last 200 weekly closing prices – about 3 years and 10 months of history squeezed into one number. Each new week the oldest week drops out and the newest comes in, so the line moves slowly. Right now it is $67,764.
Is Bitcoin above or below the 200-week moving average today?
Above or below is worked out from the latest price. When this page was built, Bitcoin was $76,699, which is +13.2% above the line at $67,764. The box at the top of the page updates with the live price every 30 seconds.
How often has Bitcoin closed a week below the 200-week moving average?
Rarely. Since the line began in June 2015, 55 of 596 weekly closes (9.2%) ended below it, spread over 11 separate dips. The longest dip lasted 30 weeks.
Has the 200-week moving average ever gone down?
Not in our data. From June 2015 to today the line was higher every week than the week before. That is because Bitcoin’s price about 200 weeks (almost 4 years) ago has always been lower than its price today so far – there is no rule that keeps it that way.
Is the 200-week moving average a buy signal?
Not on its own. Many long-term investors watch it because past bear markets bottomed near or a little below it, but the past does not promise the future. The price can stay under the line for months and drop well below it before recovering – the table on this page lists every time. Use it as one piece of context, never as a guarantee.
Why is your number a bit different from other websites?
Small differences come from the data. Kumocast uses daily Bitstamp prices starting Aug 18, 2011, builds weeks from Monday to Sunday in UTC time, and counts the current unfinished week using the latest price. Sites that start earlier, close the week on another day or skip the current week will show a slightly different value.
What is the difference between the 200-week and the 200-day moving average?
The 200-day average covers about 29 weeks (7 months), so it follows the price much more closely and is used for the medium-term trend. The 200-week average covers almost 4 years – a full Bitcoin cycle – so it shows the very long-term trend and moves far more slowly.
How often is this page updated?
The chart, the history and the tables are recalculated from the full price history at most every 30 minutes. The price, the line and the distance in the box at the top move with the live price every 30 seconds while the page is open.
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