Kumo Research
Original market data studies
We pull years of public price data from exchanges and test the questions people argue about: does ETH move on upgrades, is Bitcoin getting calmer, what do stock perps do while Wall Street sleeps. Every study shows its method, its limits and its raw numbers, and every dataset is free to download and reuse with a link back.
Ethereum
- Ethereum · 7 min read
Does ETH rally on Ethereum upgrades? Price and volatility around all 16 upgrades, from Byzantium to Fusaka
ETH rose in the 30 days before 9 of 13 feature upgrades, with a median gain of +21.7%. A random 30-day window since 2017 has a median of just +1.1%, so the run-up is real – it would happen by chance less than 2% of the time.
Read the study → - Ethereum · 5 min read
ETH vs BTC, 2017–2026: correlation, beta and the long cycles of the ETH/BTC ratio
ETH and BTC are tightly linked: the correlation of their daily returns was 0.80 over the whole period and between 0.78 and 0.91 in every full calendar year since 2018.
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Bitcoin
- Bitcoin · 6 min read
Bitcoin halving cycles compared: price, peaks and crashes after all four halvings (2012–2026)
The timing has been strikingly regular: after the last three halvings, Bitcoin peaked 525, 546 and 534 days later (December 2017, November 2021 and October 2025). After the first halving it took 371 days.
Read the study → - Bitcoin · 5 min read
Is Bitcoin getting less volatile? 15 years of data, and how BTC now compares with Tesla, Nvidia and gold
Bitcoin's annualised volatility fell from 150% in 2013 and 93% in 2017 to 42% in 2025 and 45% so far in 2026 – a drop of more than two-thirds.
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Stellar
- Stellar · 6 min read
Settlement risk: how much can the price move while a crypto payment confirms? Stellar vs Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana and XRP
Minute for minute, XLM was the most volatile of the five coins: its 95th-percentile one-minute move was 0.21%, more than twice Bitcoin's 0.09%.
Read the study → - Stellar · 6 min read
XLM and XRP: how closely do the two payment coins really move together? (2018–2026)
Over 2018–2026, the daily returns of XLM and XRP had a correlation of 0.77 – higher than either coin's correlation with Bitcoin (0.64 and 0.62) or with Ether.
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Dogecoin
- Dogecoin · 6 min read
Dogecoin and Elon Musk: what 12 events did to the DOGE price, from "One word: Doge" to D.O.G.E.
The short-term effect is real and large: in the two days around the 12 events, DOGE gained a median of +21%. Only about 2% of all two-day periods since 2019 produced a gain that big.
Read the study → - Dogecoin · 5 min read
Dogecoin vs the newer meme coins: who moves whom, and who falls hardest? (SHIB, PEPE, FLOKI, BONK, WIF)
DOGE now behaves more like a large-cap crypto than a meme coin: its daily correlation with Bitcoin (0.79) is the highest of the six, and higher than its correlation with any of the four newest meme coins (0.73–0.78).
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Stock perps
- Stock perps · 6 min read
Do on-chain stock perps track the real stock? Hyperliquid and OKX vs Nasdaq prices, hour by hour
During regular US trading hours, Hyperliquid stock perps stayed within a median of 3.1 basis points (0.031%) of the real stock price, and within 8.9 bp in 95% of hourly checks.
Read the study → - Stock perps · 5 min read
Do stock perps predict Monday's open? What 24/7 trading on Tesla, Nvidia and other stocks says about the next opening price
On weekday nights the perp price gradually "learns" the next opening price. At 4 am New York time it already got the direction of the opening gap right 79% of the time, and by 9 am, 94% of the time.
Read the study → - Stock perps · 6 min read
Earnings night on-chain: how Tesla, Nvidia, Microsoft and other stock perps react before Wall Street opens
Earnings nights are the busiest hours stock perps have: dollar volume between 4 pm and 8 pm was a median of 37 times normal for those hours, and up to 100 times for Nvidia in August 2026.
Read the study → - Stock perps · 6 min read
What does it cost to hold a stock perp? A year of funding rates on Tesla, Nvidia, Apple and other on-chain stocks
Holding a long stock perp cost between 1.8% (Apple) and 9.6% (Alphabet) a year on average from December 2025 to November 2026; the average across eight large stocks was 6.8% a year.
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Forex
- Forex · 6 min read
Forex on-chain: do Hyperliquid's EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY perps track the real currency market?
The euro perp tracked EUR/USD with a median gap of just 1.75 basis points (0.0175%), within 6 bp in 95% of hours, and its hourly moves had a 0.89 correlation with the real rate.
Read the study → - Forex · 5 min read
When does forex move? EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY and AUD/USD volatility by hour and session (2024–2026)
The four hours from 8 am to noon New York time – when London and New York are both open – are only 17% of the trading week but carry 31–39% of all price movement in the four major pairs.
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Gold & oil
- Gold & oil · 5 min read
Gold and oil on weekends: does 24/7 on-chain trading predict the Sunday-evening futures reopen?
For oil, the answer is a clear yes. By 5 pm on Sunday, the Hyperliquid WTI perp had the direction of the futures reopening gap right on 23 of 24 weekends (96%), with a correlation of 0.94 and an average error 64% smaller than assuming "no change".
Read the study → - Gold & oil · 5 min read
Gold vs Bitcoin in the 2025–2026 sell-offs: which one actually held up?
On the nine days in 2025–2026 when the S&P 500 fell more than 2%, gold rose a median of 0.7% while Bitcoin fell a median of 3.6%. Gold was the better shelter on most of those days.
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Kumo Research is market data analysis, not investment advice. You are welcome to cite any study or chart; please link to the study page.