Kumo Research · Ethereum
ETH vs BTC, 2017–2026: correlation, beta and the long cycles of the ETH/BTC ratio
Ether and Bitcoin are the two largest crypto assets, and the ETH/BTC ratio is one of the most watched charts in the market. We used 3,365 days of Binance data, from August 2017 to November 2026, to measure how the two move together – and what has driven ETH to beat or trail Bitcoin.
By Alex Wu · Published · 5 min read
Key findings
- ETH and BTC are tightly linked: the correlation of their daily returns was 0.80 over the whole period and between 0.78 and 0.91 in every full calendar year since 2018.
- ETH has become a more "leveraged" version of Bitcoin. Its beta to BTC – how much it moves for each 1% BTC move – averaged about 1.0 until 2024, then rose to 1.47 in 2025 and 1.23 in 2026.
- ETH beat BTC in only two of ten calendar years (2020 and 2021). In the other eight years the ETH/BTC ratio fell, by between 5% and 49%.
- The ETH/BTC ratio has moved in long waves: −85% from February 2018 to September 2019, ×5.4 to December 2021, −79% to April 2025, then ×2.3 to August 2025. On 2 November 2026 it stood at 0.0293.
- Bitcoin rallies have not reliably lifted ETH/BTC. In 30-day windows when BTC rose more than 20%, ETH beat BTC only 43% of the time. When BTC fell more than 20%, ETH/BTC dropped by a median of 8%.
Why the ETH/BTC ratio matters
For investors who hold both coins, the most important number is often not the dollar price but the ETH/BTC ratio: how many bitcoin one ether is worth. When it rises, ETH is beating Bitcoin; when it falls, Bitcoin is winning. Developers, funds and treasuries that hold ETH watch it as a measure of Ethereum's standing in the market.
We measured four things over nine years of daily data: how closely the two prices move, how strongly ETH amplifies Bitcoin's moves, how the ETH/BTC ratio has cycled, and whether "Bitcoin up" really means "ETH up more".
The ETH/BTC ratio in long waves
Two big ETH/BTC cycles, then a long slide
Price of 1 ETH in BTC, daily (log scale)
Source: Binance ETHBTC daily closes, July 2017 – November 2026 · Chart: Kumo Research, kumocast.io
The ratio has moved in a few long swings rather than short cycles:
- Peak: 0.113 BTC on 1 February 2018, just after the 2017 ICO boom, when Ethereum was the platform behind most token sales.
- Low: 0.0164 BTC on 6 September 2019, an 85% fall over the 2018–19 bear market.
- Peak: 0.0879 BTC on 8 December 2021, a 5.4-fold rise during the DeFi and NFT boom, which ran on Ethereum.
- Low: 0.0181 BTC on 21 April 2025, a 79% fall over more than three years in which Bitcoin gained from spot ETFs and corporate treasuries.
- Rebound: 0.0421 BTC on 24 August 2025, a 2.3-fold rise as ETH set a new all-time high of about $4,830.
On 2 November 2026 the ratio was 0.0293. The big ETH/BTC rallies have both come from activity on Ethereum (token sales in 2017, DeFi and NFTs in 2020–21) rather than from the general crypto market.
Eight losing years out of ten
ETH beat BTC in only two calendar years
Change in the ETH/BTC ratio by calendar year, % (2017 from mid-August)
Source: Binance ETHUSDT and BTCUSDT daily closes · Chart: Kumo Research, kumocast.io
Measured by calendar year, ETH beat Bitcoin only in 2020 (+42%) and 2021 (+212%). In the other eight years the ratio fell – most sharply in 2019 (−49%), when Bitcoin nearly doubled and ETH ended slightly lower. Even in strong years for ETH in dollars, such as 2023 (+91%) and 2024 (+46%), Bitcoin did better (+156% and +121%).
| Year | ETH | BTC | ETH/BTC | Correlation | Beta | ETH volatility | BTC volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | +143% | +220% | -24% | 0.48 | 0.52 | 119% | 110% |
| 2018 | -82% | -73% | -34% | 0.82 | 1.09 | 111% | 84% |
| 2019 | -2% | +94% | -49% | 0.82 | 0.98 | 81% | 68% |
| 2020 | +470% | +302% | +42% | 0.87 | 1.14 | 105% | 81% |
| 2021 | +399% | +60% | +212% | 0.78 | 1.05 | 109% | 81% |
| 2022 | -67% | -64% | -9% | 0.90 | 1.22 | 87% | 64% |
| 2023 | +91% | +156% | -25% | 0.83 | 0.89 | 47% | 44% |
| 2024 | +46% | +121% | -34% | 0.80 | 0.97 | 64% | 53% |
| 2025 | -11% | -6% | -5% | 0.82 | 1.47 | 74% | 42% |
| 2026 | -24% | -12% | -14% | 0.91 | 1.23 | 60% | 44% |
2017 starts on 17 August; 2026 runs to 2 November. Volatility is annualised from daily returns.
Tightly linked, and more so over time
Daily returns of ETH and BTC had a correlation of 0.80 over the whole period. Apart from the second half of 2017 – when the ICO boom gave ETH a life of its own and the correlation was 0.48 – it has stayed between 0.78 and 0.91 in every year. 2022 (0.90) and 2026 (0.91) were the most tightly linked years; both were falling markets, when everything in crypto tends to move together.
ETH has become a "leveraged Bitcoin"
Rolling 90-day beta of ETH to BTC (1.0 = moves one-for-one) and correlation
- Beta
- Correlation
Source: Binance daily closes · Chart: Kumo Research, kumocast.io
The bigger change is in beta. Until 2024, ETH tended to move roughly one-for-one with Bitcoin (beta 0.89–1.14 in most years). In 2025 its beta rose to 1.47 and in 2026 it is 1.23: ETH now typically moves about 1.2–1.5% for each 1% move in BTC. Its volatility relative to Bitcoin rose too – in 2023 ETH was barely more volatile than BTC (47% against 44%), while in 2025 it was 1.8 times as volatile (74% against 42%).
Do Bitcoin rallies lift ETH even more?
A common belief is that when Bitcoin rallies, money "rotates" into ETH and altcoins, so ETH/BTC rises in strong markets. We grouped every 30-day window since 2017 by how much Bitcoin moved and looked at what ETH/BTC did.
Bitcoin rallies have not reliably lifted ETH/BTC
Median 30-day change in ETH/BTC, grouped by Bitcoin's 30-day move
Source: Kumo Research calculation from Binance daily closes, 2017–2026 · Chart: Kumo Research, kumocast.io
| Bitcoin over 30 days | Number of 30-day windows | Median ETH/BTC change | ETH beat BTC |
|---|---|---|---|
| < −20% | 304 | -8.3% | 29% |
| −20 to −10% | 444 | -3.1% | 35% |
| −10 to 0% | 770 | -2.0% | 42% |
| 0 to +10% | 731 | -1.1% | 46% |
| +10 to +20% | 401 | +0.6% | 51% |
| > +20% | 685 | -3.0% | 43% |
All overlapping 30-day windows, August 2017 – November 2026.
The data does not support the rotation story as a rule:
- When BTC rose more than 20% in 30 days, ETH/BTC changed by a median of −3.0%, and ETH beat BTC only 43% of the time.
- The best zone for ETH was moderate Bitcoin gains of 10–20%, where ETH beat BTC in 51% of windows – essentially a coin flip.
- When BTC fell more than 20%, ETH/BTC fell by a median of 8.3% and ETH beat BTC only 29% of the time.
Overall, Bitcoin's 30-day move and the ETH/BTC 30-day change were almost uncorrelated (−0.05). The clearest pattern is on the downside: in sharp crypto sell-offs, ETH has usually fallen harder than Bitcoin. On a daily basis, ETH captured 1.07 times Bitcoin's gains on up days and 1.10 times its losses on down days.
Drawdowns
ETH's worst peak-to-trough fall in the period was −94% (2018), against −83% for Bitcoin. On 2 November 2026, ETH was 53% below its all-time closing high of about $4,830 (22 August 2025), while Bitcoin was 38% below its high of about $124,660 (6 October 2025).
What this means
- ETH and BTC move together almost every day, and ETH's moves have become larger relative to Bitcoin's.
- ETH beat BTC over a full calendar year only twice in ten years. Its big outperformance came during Ethereum-specific booms, not general rallies.
- Strong Bitcoin months have not reliably led to ETH outperformance, while sharp sell-offs have usually hurt ETH more.
For live ETH and BTC levels, volatility ranges and indicators, see our Ethereum market data and Bitcoin market data.
Method, data and limits
Data: daily closes (00:00 UTC) of ETH/USDT and BTC/USDT on Binance from 17 August 2017, and ETH/BTC from 14 July 2017, to 2 November 2026.
Measures: Pearson correlation of daily log returns; beta = covariance of ETH and BTC daily returns divided by the variance of BTC returns; volatility annualised with √365. Rolling measures use 90-day windows. ETH/BTC peaks and troughs are turning points after a move of at least 50%. The 30-day analysis uses every overlapping 30-day window.
Limits: results depend on the period and on one exchange; correlations change over time; calendar-year cuts are arbitrary. Not investment advice.
Download the data (CSV, CC BY 4.0)
Sources
How to cite
Kumo Research (2026). "ETH vs BTC, 2017–2026: correlation, beta and the long cycles of the ETH/BTC ratio". Kumocast. https://www.kumocast.io/research/eth-vs-btc-correlation-ratio-cycles
This study describes past market data. It is not investment advice and past behaviour does not guarantee future results.
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About the researcher
Alex Wu
Crypto, DeFi, perps and FX · driven by data
Alex designed the Kumocast model behind these signals, sets its rules, reviews its accuracy record and updates the methodology whenever the model changes. Signals are refreshed every 30 minutes with live market data.