XLM and XRP: how closely do the two payment coins really move together? (2018–2026)

Why compare XLM and XRP?

Stellar (XLM) and the XRP Ledger (XRP) are two of the oldest blockchains built for payments rather than for smart contracts or store of value. Both settle in a few seconds, both have built-in exchanges, and both are used to move value across borders. They are also linked by history: Jed McCaleb co-founded Ripple and later co-founded the Stellar Development Foundation in 2014.

Because of this, traders often treat the two as a pair: when XRP moves, people look at XLM. We wanted to know how strong that link really is, whether it is just the general crypto market, and whether it has lasted. We used daily prices for XLM, XRP, BTC, ETH, SOL and DOGE on Binance from June 2018 (when both XLM and XRP were trading against USDT) to November 2026, plus three years of hourly data.

The tightest pair in our sample

Almost all crypto assets move together to some degree, mostly because they all react to Bitcoin and to global risk appetite. So the useful question is not "are XLM and XRP correlated?" but "are they more correlated with each other than with everything else?"

Across 3,077 days, XLM's daily returns had a correlation of 0.77 with XRP. That is higher than XLM's correlation with Bitcoin (0.64) or Ether (0.68), and higher than XRP's correlation with Bitcoin (0.62). In plain terms, if you want to guess how XLM did today, XRP's move tells you more than Bitcoin's.

The chart shows the correlation measured over rolling 90-day windows. The solid line (XLM with XRP) sits above the dashed line (XLM with BTC) for most of the eight years. The gap was widest in 2023 and 2024: XLM's correlation with Bitcoin fell to 0.48 and 0.40 for those calendar years, but its correlation with XRP stayed at 0.85 and 0.72. When the two payment coins went their own way from the rest of the market, they mostly went together.

Removing Bitcoin: what is left is a real link

To check that this is not just a shared reaction to Bitcoin, we removed Bitcoin's influence from each coin's daily returns (using each coin's beta to BTC) and measured the correlation of what was left.

For XLM and XRP the remaining correlation is 0.61 – most of their link survives. For every other pair we tested it collapses: 0.35 for XRP and ETH, 0.34 for XLM and ETH, and 0.17–0.25 for pairs involving SOL and DOGE. Whatever moves XLM and XRP together – shared holders, shared narratives about payments, regulation and banks, or traders who simply buy both – it is specific to these two coins.

Big news days

The link is clearest on XRP's biggest days, many of which were driven by Ripple-specific news that had nothing to do with Stellar.

• When the SEC sued Ripple in December 2020, XRP fell 41.6% in a day and XLM fell 21.9%, while Bitcoin barely moved.
• When a US court ruled in July 2023 that XRP was not a security when sold on exchanges, XRP rose 73.1% and XLM 61.5% on the same day. Bitcoin rose 3.5%.
• After the March 2025 post about a US crypto reserve that named XRP, XRP gained 34.1% and XLM 12.7%.

Across all 160 days when XRP moved more than 10%, XLM moved in the same direction 96% of the time. Its move was typically about 75% the size of XRP's, and the overall beta of XLM to XRP is 0.77. News about XRP reliably spills over to XLM, but in a smaller dose.

No lead, no lag

If XRP moved first and XLM followed an hour later, the pattern could be traded. It cannot. Using three years of hourly data, the correlation between the two coins is 0.78 in the same hour and between −0.02 and 0.00 one or two hours earlier or later. Markets price the spillover within the hour.

Same moves, different destinations

Here is the twist. Although the two coins move together day by day, they have had very different long-term results.

The chart shows the price of one XLM in XRP. In June 2018, one XLM was worth 0.48 XRP. It briefly reached 1.37 XRP in January 2021, then fell to a low of 0.10 XRP in July 2025 and stood at 0.13 XRP on 2 November 2026. Over the full period, XRP went from about $0.61 to $1.25 (roughly doubling), while XLM went from about $0.30 to $0.16 (down 44%).

This is the most important lesson for anyone who treats the two as interchangeable. A correlation of 0.77 describes how the coins move on a typical day; it says nothing about which one will do better over years. Small differences in the size of each move add up. On most of the big days in the table, XRP's move was larger than XLM's, so Ripple-specific news such as the 2023 ruling and the 2025 reserve post lifted XRP further each time.

What this means

1. XLM and XRP are the most tightly linked major crypto pair in our data, and the link is genuine rather than just a side effect of Bitcoin.
2. Big XRP news almost always moves XLM in the same direction, typically by about three-quarters as much, and on the same hour.
3. Tight daily correlation did not stop the two from drifting far apart over eight years.

For live XLM and XRP levels, volatility ranges and indicators, see our Stellar market data and XRP market data.