Kumo Research · Dogecoin
Dogecoin vs the newer meme coins: who moves whom, and who falls hardest? (SHIB, PEPE, FLOKI, BONK, WIF)
Dogecoin was the first meme coin, and many traders still treat it as the leader of the group. We compared DOGE with five newer meme coins – Shiba Inu, Pepe, Floki, Bonk and dogwifhat – over the 971 days since all six were trading on Binance.
By Alex Wu · Published · 5 min read
Key findings
- DOGE now behaves more like a large-cap crypto than a meme coin: its daily correlation with Bitcoin (0.79) is the highest of the six, and higher than its correlation with any of the four newest meme coins (0.73–0.78).
- Nobody leads. Using three years of hourly data, DOGE, SHIB and PEPE move together within the same hour (correlation 0.72–0.83) and show no measurable lead or lag one or two hours later.
- The newer coins fall harder than they rise. On days DOGE fell, WIF fell 1.22× as much and BONK 1.13×, but on up days they gained only 1.13× and 1.03×. Over time that asymmetry is expensive.
- Since March 2024 every meme coin lost value while Bitcoin gained 16%: PEPE −34%, DOGE −53%, FLOKI −83%, SHIB −86%, BONK −91% and WIF −91%. The worst peak-to-trough falls inside the window ranged from −85% (DOGE) to −97% (WIF).
- There are two families. Once Bitcoin is removed, DOGE is most closely tied to SHIB (0.67), while the newer coins form their own cluster – PEPE with FLOKI (0.68), FLOKI with BONK (0.65).
The question
Meme coins are often discussed as one group that rises and falls together, with Dogecoin as the "king" whose moves set the tone. If that were true, DOGE's moves should come first and the smaller coins should follow – and DOGE should be the best guide to the rest of the group.
We tested that using Binance prices for DOGE, SHIB, PEPE, FLOKI, BONK and WIF. dogwifhat (WIF) was the last to list on Binance, on 5 March 2024, so our main window runs from 6 March 2024 to 2 November 2026 – 971 days with all six coins and Bitcoin. For the timing question we also used three years of hourly prices for DOGE, SHIB and PEPE.
One warning up front: March 2024 was the height of a meme-coin frenzy, so returns measured from that date look worse than they would from a quieter starting point. The relationships between the coins – correlation, beta, volatility – do not depend much on the start date.
How the six coins performed
Six meme coins and Bitcoin since March 2024
Price indexed to 100 on 6 March 2024 (log scale)
- DOGE
- SHIB
- PEPE
- FLOKI
- BONK
- WIF
- BTC
Source: Binance daily closes, 6 Mar 2024 – 2 Nov 2026 · Chart: Kumo Research, kumocast.io
Every meme coin lost value over the period while Bitcoin rose. PEPE held up best at −34%, followed by DOGE at −53%. The others lost 83–91%. Inside the window, every one of them fell at least 85% from its high at some point, and WIF fell 97%.
| Coin | Change | Worst drawdown | Below its high (now) | Beta to DOGE | Beta to BTC | Correlation with BTC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DOGE | -53% | -85% | -84% | 1.00 | 1.51 | 0.79 |
| SHIB | -86% | -88% | -87% | 0.79 | 1.29 | 0.74 |
| PEPE | -34% | -91% | -82% | 1.05 | 1.76 | 0.69 |
| FLOKI | -83% | -94% | -93% | 1.00 | 1.67 | 0.68 |
| BONK | -91% | -96% | -95% | 1.02 | 1.75 | 0.66 |
| WIF | -91% | -97% | -96% | 1.13 | 1.90 | 0.65 |
| BTC | +16% | -53% | -38% | 0.41 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
Binance daily closes, 6 March 2024 – 2 November 2026. Highs and drawdowns are measured inside this window.
DOGE is the most "Bitcoin-like" meme coin
The table shows something that surprises many meme traders. DOGE's correlation with Bitcoin (0.79) is higher than any other meme coin's and higher than its correlation with PEPE, FLOKI, BONK or WIF. Its beta to Bitcoin is 1.51 – it typically moves about one and a half times as much as BTC – compared with 1.76 for PEPE and 1.90 for WIF.
How wild is each coin?
Annualised volatility of daily returns, March 2024 – November 2026
- DOGE88%
- SHIB80%
- PEPE118%
- FLOKI113%
- BONK122%
- WIF133%
- BTC46%
Source: Binance daily closes · Chart: Kumo Research, kumocast.io
In volatility, DOGE (88% a year) and SHIB (80%) are in a different league from the newer coins (113–133%). Both still swing almost twice as much as Bitcoin (46%), but they behave more like established large-cap altcoins. DOGE is one of the largest crypto assets by market value, listed almost everywhere and held by long-term investors; the newer meme coins are smaller and trade more on momentum.
No leader, no follower
If DOGE led the group, the smaller coins' moves should follow DOGE's with a delay. They do not. In three years of hourly data, SHIB's correlation with DOGE is 0.83 in the same hour and between −0.02 and 0.00 one or two hours before or after. For PEPE it is 0.72 in the same hour and again essentially zero at any lag.
Two families of meme coins
To see which coins have something in common beyond the crypto market, we removed Bitcoin's influence from each coin's daily returns and measured what was left.
| DOGE | SHIB | PEPE | FLOKI | BONK | WIF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DOGE | – | 0.67 | 0.54 | 0.52 | 0.47 | 0.48 |
| SHIB | 0.67 | – | 0.58 | 0.61 | 0.53 | 0.51 |
| PEPE | 0.54 | 0.58 | – | 0.68 | 0.61 | 0.59 |
| FLOKI | 0.52 | 0.61 | 0.68 | – | 0.65 | 0.57 |
| BONK | 0.47 | 0.53 | 0.61 | 0.65 | – | 0.58 |
| WIF | 0.48 | 0.51 | 0.59 | 0.57 | 0.58 | – |
Each coin's daily return minus its Bitcoin-beta share; 6 March 2024 – 2 November 2026 (971 days).
Two groups appear. The "old" meme coins, DOGE and SHIB, are each other's closest relatives (0.67). The newer coins – PEPE, FLOKI and BONK – are most closely tied to each other (0.61–0.68). WIF, a Solana-based coin like BONK, sits in the newer group but with no single close partner.
The DOGE–SHIB link has grown over time: the correlation of their daily returns was 0.53 in 2021 (when SHIB was brand new), 0.76 in 2024 and 0.92 in 2025.
Falling harder than they rise
The most practical finding is about asymmetry. We split the days into DOGE up days and DOGE down days and measured how much each coin moved relative to DOGE.
Falling harder than they rise
Average move on days DOGE rose vs days DOGE fell, as a multiple of DOGE's move
- On DOGE up days
- On DOGE down days
Source: Kumo Research calculation from Binance daily closes · Chart: Kumo Research, kumocast.io
- WIF rose 1.13× DOGE's move on up days but fell 1.22× on down days.
- BONK rose 1.03× but fell 1.13×.
- FLOKI rose 0.98× but fell 1.04×.
- SHIB rose only 0.76× but fell 0.85×.
- PEPE was the most balanced: 1.11× up and 1.09× down.
When a coin loses more on bad days than it gains on good days, it can trail even if the group goes nowhere. This helps explain why most of the newer meme coins ended the period far below DOGE, despite similar day-to-day correlation.
What this means
- DOGE has become the most Bitcoin-like of the meme coins – less volatile and more tied to the wider crypto market.
- There is no lead-lag effect: the whole meme sector moves within the same hour.
- Meme coins split into an "old" pair (DOGE, SHIB) and a "new" cluster (PEPE, FLOKI, BONK, WIF).
- Most newer meme coins have fallen more on bad days than they gained on good days, which has been costly over time.
For live levels and volatility ranges, see our Dogecoin, Shiba Inu, Pepe, Floki, Bonk and dogwifhat pages.
Method, data and limits
Data: daily closes (00:00 UTC) of DOGE, SHIB, PEPE, FLOKI, BONK, WIF and BTC against USDT on Binance, 6 March 2024 – 2 November 2026 (971 days). Hourly closes for DOGE, SHIB, PEPE and BTC from November 2023. Yearly DOGE–SHIB correlations use data from May 2021.
Measures: Pearson correlation of daily log returns; beta = covariance with DOGE (or BTC) divided by its variance; volatility = annualised standard deviation of daily returns (√365). Up/down capture = a coin's average return on days DOGE rose (or fell) divided by DOGE's average return on those days. Residual correlations remove each coin's Bitcoin beta first.
Limits: the start date sits near a meme-coin peak, which affects returns but not correlations much; one exchange; meme coins can change character quickly. Not investment advice.
Download the data (CSV, CC BY 4.0)
How to cite
Kumo Research (2026). "Dogecoin vs the newer meme coins: who moves whom, and who falls hardest? (SHIB, PEPE, FLOKI, BONK, WIF)". Kumocast. https://www.kumocast.io/research/dogecoin-vs-meme-coins
This study describes past market data. It is not investment advice and past behaviour does not guarantee future results.
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About the researcher
Alex Wu
Crypto, DeFi, perps and FX · driven by data
Alex designed the Kumocast model behind these signals, sets its rules, reviews its accuracy record and updates the methodology whenever the model changes. Signals are refreshed every 30 minutes with live market data.