kumocast

Alibaba (BABA) Stock Prediction Today – November 1, 2026

LIVE · next update ~
Alex Wu, Independent market analystModel by · auto-updated
Wall Street (NYSE) closed · opens in 17 h 10 min – showing the 24/7 Hyperliquid (trade.xyz) price

Alibaba price: $99.118

+0.52% 24h

Light rain

slightly bearish · confidence 55%

Alibaba analysis today

Grey skies for Alibaba – the signals tilt mildly bearish. Alibaba is trading at $99.118, up 0.52% over the last 24 hours, after moving between $98.551 and $99.118.

Our model's mood score is -17 out of 100 (slightly bearish). The nearest ceiling (resistance) is $101.76 and the nearest floor (support) is $98.9227. Our 24-hour forecast range is $97.7562–$100.39, based on recent volatility.

If buyers push through $101.76, the next stop is around $101.90. A drop below $98.9227 would put $98.8753 in focus. Alibaba in brief – China’s e-commerce and cloud leader; Alibaba is sensitive to Chinese economic policy and regulation.

Zooming out, Alibaba is down 0.80% over seven days and down 6.43% over thirty days. With an average daily swing of 1.66%, the 2.67% gap to the ceiling and the 0.20% gap to the floor leave room for a normal day of trading.

See all stock predictions today →Related: Nikkei 225 prediction

Alibaba chart: last 48 hours and next 24

Past 48 hours of Alibaba on the left, the forecast cone for the next 24 hours on the right. Dashed lines mark the ceiling and the floor.

NowCeiling$101.76Floor$98.922700:0012:0000:0012:0000:0012:00UTC

Forecast ranges: 4 hours, 24 hours, 7 days

Each balloon stretches from the expected low to the expected high. Longer trips need bigger balloons.

Now $99.118$99.6335$98.5598Next 4 hours$100.39$97.7562Next 24 hours$103.36$94.6941Next 7 days
  • Next 4 hours: $98.5598 – $99.6335
  • Next 24 hours: $97.7562 – $100.39
  • Next 7 days: $94.6941 – $103.36

Buyers vs sellers

A simple tug of war: money flowing through green candles against money flowing through red ones.

Sellers 41%Buyers 59%

Buyers 59% · Sellers 41% (last 24h)

Order-book mountains

Order-book depth near the price: the bigger mountain shows which side has more orders waiting.

$99.118$98.8702Buy orders$99.118$99.3658Sell orders

Sunny vs rainy: what happens next?

Sunny if buyers break the ceiling, rainy if sellers break the floor.

Sunny scenario

If $99.118 breaks above $101.76 → $101.90

45%

Rainy scenario

If it breaks below $98.9227 → $98.8753

55%

Mood dials

What the technical indicators say right now for BABA.

  • RSI (14, daily)

    33

    Bearish

    sellers have the upper hand

  • MACD (4h)

    Above signal

    Bullish

    momentum is pointing up

  • Trend (EMA 20/50, 4h)

    Downtrend

    Bearish

    short trend is below the medium trend

  • Long trend (EMA 200, daily)

    Price below

    Bearish

    long-term trend is down

  • Stochastic (4h)

    100

    Bearish

    stretched to the upside

  • Trend strength (ADX)

    27

    Neutral

    a strong trend is in place

  • Bollinger position (daily)

    26%

    Neutral

    inside the normal band

  • What the dials say

    1 of 7 indicators lean bullish and 4 lean bearish. RSI (14, daily): sellers have the upper hand; MACD (4h): momentum is pointing up; Trend (EMA 20/50, 4h): short trend is below the medium trend.

Hour-by-hour weather

The last 12 hours of Alibaba, hour by hour.

  1. 09:00Cloudy−0.00%
  2. 10:00Cloudy+0.06%
  3. 11:00Cloudy+0.00%
  4. 12:00Cloudy−0.10%
  5. 13:00Cloudy+0.08%
  6. 14:00Cloudy+0.08%
  7. 15:00Cloudy+0.11%
  8. 16:00Cloudy+0.02%
  9. 17:00Cloudy+0.05%
  10. 18:00Cloudy+0.03%
  11. 19:00Cloudy−0.01%
  12. 20:00Cloudy+0.04%

Today in one line: 0 of the last 12 hours were bright for Alibaba; the day is net positive so far.

Alibaba 7-day forecast

Day-by-day ranges for the coming week. Bars get wider as uncertainty grows.

likely rangeprice now▲ / ▼ change of the range middle vs now

  1. MondayNov 2

    Cloudy – likely between $97.4358 and $100.72

    ▼ 0.06%
  2. TuesdayNov 3

    Cloudy – likely between $96.7156 and $101.35

    ▼ 0.11%
  3. WednesdayNov 4

    Cloudy – likely between $96.1539 and $101.83

    ▼ 0.17%
  4. ThursdayNov 5

    Cloudy – likely between $95.6745 and $102.22

    ▼ 0.22%
  5. FridayNov 6

    Cloudy – likely between $95.2477 and $102.57

    ▼ 0.28%
  6. SaturdayNov 7

    Cloudy – likely between $94.8584 and $102.87

    ▼ 0.34%
  7. SundayNov 8

    Cloudy – likely between $94.4975 and $103.15

    ▼ 0.39%

Alibaba stock prediction 2026–2030

Long-term scenarios from pure statistics: Alibaba's yearly volatility is about 39% and its trend was −46.65% over the past year. The base case keeps only a small, capped part of that trend; the bear and bull cases show the 10% and 90% edges of the likely spread.

Year endBear caseBase caseBull case
2026$79.6399$97.2104−1.92%$118.66
2027$50.5453$86.2178−13.01%$147.07
2028$36.8802$76.4432−22.88%$158.45
2029$28.0856$67.7991−31.60%$163.67
2030$21.8798$60.1324−39.33%$165.26

Price today: $99.118 (black line). Nobody can know where Alibaba will trade in five years – these ranges show how far it could plausibly travel given its own history, not a promise. Not financial advice.

How accurate is our Alibaba forecast?

We replay the daily version of the Kumocast range model on the last 30 finished days, using only data that was available before each day. A good one-standard-deviation range should catch the next close about 68% of the time.

83%Next-day range hit rate25 of 30 days closed inside the range (target ≈68%)
77%7-day range hit rate23 of 30 weekly ranges held
±2.0%Average daily rangehow wide the next-day range was on average – narrower means a calmer market

Last 30 days

  1. 2026-10-02: inside range
  2. 2026-10-03: inside range
  3. 2026-10-04: inside range
  4. 2026-10-05: outside range
  5. 2026-10-06: inside range
  6. 2026-10-07: inside range
  7. 2026-10-08: inside range
  8. 2026-10-09: outside range
  9. 2026-10-10: inside range
  10. 2026-10-11: inside range
  11. 2026-10-12: inside range
  12. 2026-10-13: inside range
  13. 2026-10-14: inside range
  14. 2026-10-15: inside range
  15. 2026-10-16: inside range
  16. 2026-10-17: inside range
  17. 2026-10-18: inside range
  18. 2026-10-19: inside range
  19. 2026-10-20: inside range
  20. 2026-10-21: outside range
  21. 2026-10-22: outside range
  22. 2026-10-23: inside range
  23. 2026-10-24: inside range
  24. 2026-10-25: inside range
  25. 2026-10-26: inside range
  26. 2026-10-27: inside range
  27. 2026-10-28: inside range
  28. 2026-10-29: outside range
  29. 2026-10-30: inside range
  30. 2026-10-31: inside range

close inside the rangeclose outside

Verdict: over the last month the Alibaba ranges were a little too cautious (ranges wider than needed). Past accuracy does not guarantee future results. How we score ourselves

Why is Alibaba moving? News and events

The forecast is pure maths, but prices react to news. Here are the latest Alibaba headlines and the scheduled economic releases that could move it this week.

Latest headlines

Headlines via Google News. Kumocast does not write or endorse them.

Alibaba live update log

Every 30 minutes Kumo checks the sky again. Newest first.

z z

Market closed – next update when Wall Street (NYSE) opens

TODAY6

  1. $99.118+0.00%Hit a new 24h high of $99.118, closed at $99.118
  2. $99.117+0.04%Hit a new 24h high of $99.117, closed at $99.117
  3. $99.08−0.01%Alibaba drifted sideways around $99.08
  4. $99.088−0.00%Quiet half hour: Alibaba held near $99.088
  5. $99.09+0.01%Hit a new 24h high of $99.106, closed at $99.09
  6. $99.079+0.01%Hit a new 24h high of $99.10, closed at $99.079
Show all 16 updates
  1. $99.07−0.03%Hit a new 24h high of $99.099, closed at $99.07
  2. $99.098+0.09%Hit a new 24h high of $99.098, closed at $99.098
  3. $99.011−0.00%Hit a new 24h high of $99.017, closed at $99.011
  4. $99.013+0.02%Hit a new 24h high of $99.013, closed at $99.013
  5. $98.992+0.11%Hit a new 24h high of $98.994, closed at $98.992
  6. $98.887+0.04%Alibaba drifted sideways around $98.887
  7. $98.848+0.03%Quiet half hour: Alibaba held near $98.848
  8. $98.819+0.02%Calm skies: Alibaba stayed close to $98.819
  9. $98.797+0.07%Buyers lifted Alibaba to $98.797 (+0.07%)
  10. $98.73+0.02%Quiet half hour: Alibaba held near $98.73

Alibaba prediction FAQ

What is the Alibaba price prediction for today?

For today we expect Alibaba to trade mostly between $97.7562 and $100.39. The outlook is light rain (slightly bearish), with a 45% chance of the sunny scenario playing out first. This range is updated every 30 minutes.

What is the Alibaba prediction for tomorrow?

For Monday our model points to a range of $97.4358 to $100.72, centred near $99.0622 (−0.06% from now).

Is Alibaba going up or down?

Right now the signals are slightly bearish: 1 indicators lean up and 4 lean down. Alibaba is down 0.80% over the past week.

What are the Alibaba support and resistance levels?

The nearest resistance (ceiling) is $101.76 and the nearest support (floor) is $98.9227. Today's classic pivot point is $98.4727, with R1 at $98.8753 and S1 at $98.2683.

What is the Alibaba forecast for this week?

Over the next 7 days we expect Alibaba to stay roughly between $94.6941 and $103.36. Weekly ranges are wider because uncertainty grows with time.

Is Alibaba a buy or a sell today?

No signal here is a trade recommendation. The current read for BABA is 1 bullish / 2 neutral / 4 bearish across our seven indicators.

How volatile is Alibaba right now?

Alibaba has a typical daily move of about 1.66% based on the last 60 days. In the last 24 hours it moved between $98.551 and $99.118.

How accurate is this Alibaba prediction?

The ranges come from recent volatility, so roughly two days in three Alibaba should finish inside the 24-hour band. Surprise news, earnings or liquidations can push it outside.

How often is this Alibaba analysis updated?

The page rebuilds itself about every 30 minutes with fresh BABA data. The "updated" badge at the top shows exactly when.

Where does the Alibaba price data come from?

Prices come from public exchange data (from a single public venue). See our methodology page for details.

What is the Alibaba price prediction for 2030?

Our statistical base case for the end of 2030 is about $60.1324, with a wide 80% range from $21.8798 (bear case) to $165.26 (bull case). It is built from Alibaba's own volatility and a heavily shrunk version of its past-year trend, so treat it as a scenario, not a target.

Where could Alibaba be at the end of 2027?

For the end of 2027 the model's base case is $86.2178 (−13.01% from today), with a bear case near $50.5453 and a bull case near $147.07. The range is refreshed every 30 minutes as new prices arrive.

Alex Wu, Independent market analyst

About the analyst

Alex Wu

Independent market analyst

Independent market analyst focused on crypto, DeFi, perps and FX. Driven by data. Alex designed the Kumocast weather model and reviews its methodology.

The numbers on this page are produced automatically every 30 minutes by the Kumocast engine – there are no hand-picked calls. Alex sets the rules, checks the accuracy tracker and updates the methodology when the model changes.

Follow @OnchainUalexwu@kumocast.io

How we make this forecast

Every 30 minutes Kumocast reads public price data and runs it through seven classic indicators, support and resistance detection and a volatility model. The weather word sums up the combined mood score, from −100 (rainy) to +100 (sunny). Ranges are statistical estimates, not promises. Read the full methodology

Data: Hyperliquid (trade.xyz)

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